Touchdown Theory

The why behind the numbers.

Touchdown Theory is a research tool for the NFL. It projects games and players and shows how every number is built, from the team matchup and pace to player usage and the environment the game is played in. Research, not picks.

Game projections

Week 8, 14 games. Each shows the model's win probability for the home team beside the market's, with the market's margin removed. The biggest gaps vs. the market are first.

All 14 games, model against market

Odds & Probability

Probability first, with the fair odds alongside it, placed next to what the market is offering.

TD Zone

Anytime touchdown probability for every skill player on the slate.

Passing Yards Passing TDs This Week's QBs Receiving Yards Rushing Yards Receptions

Odds ScreenMarket lines across the slate, and where they were first recorded when they have moved.→

Research tools

This Week's Slate Player Projections Team Ratings Team Matchup Stadiums Player Directory

The model

Methodology FAQ Data Status Environment

The league in 2025

All 32 teams →

Net rating is a team's per-play quality on both sides of the ball, measured across the season. Positive is above league average.

Strongest

1LALos Angeles Rams+0.129

2SEASeattle Seahawks+0.123

3NENew England Patriots+0.090

Weakest

30LVLas Vegas Raiders-0.109

31TENTennessee Titans-0.122

32NYJNew York Jets-0.156

Where the games are played

The environment is a measured part of every projection, not a footnote. These are the conditions the model reads across the league's home venues.

Under a roof

10

Venues with a fixed or retractable roof, where weather can be removed from the game entirely.

Natural grass

17

Grass degrades through a wet game in a way artificial turf does not.

Highest elevation

5,280 ft

Denver, where thinner air lets the ball carry farther.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.