Questions, answered plainly.

Touchdown Theory is a research and analysis tool for the NFL. It projects games and players and publishes fair value against the betting market, and for every number it shows the reasoning that produced it, from the team matchup and pace to player usage and the game environment. It is built to help you understand a game and form your own view, not to tell you what to bet.

No. Touchdown Theory is a research and analysis tool. It publishes projections, fair value against the market, and the reasoning behind both, and it lets you draw your own conclusions. It does not sell picks, it does not tell you what to bet, and it does not keep a win-loss record. What you do with the information is your decision.

It is for the person whose first instinct when shown a projection is to ask why. Sharp recreational bettors, fantasy and DFS players, and fans who want to understand a game rather than be handed a pick. If you want reasoning you can trace, this is built for you.

Two things. Most models hand you a number with no way to see how it was made. Touchdown Theory shows the full chain behind every number, so you can trace a projection back through its parts. And it puts the game environment, wind, cold, domes, and altitude, into that chain as a measured, visible adjustment, which most football coverage treats as a footnote.

Touchdown Theory expresses every projection as a probability first, for example a 31 percent chance a player scores a touchdown, and shows the fair odds that probability translates to alongside it. We place that next to what the sportsbooks are offering so you can see where our number and the market disagree. When our probability is higher than the price the market implies, our model thinks the outcome is more likely than the market is pricing. When it is lower, less likely. The gap is information about the disagreement, not a recommendation to act on it. Because we lead with the probability, our numbers are also directly comparable to prediction markets, not only sportsbooks.

Our model and the market weigh things differently. Touchdown Theory builds a projection from team efficiency, pace, player usage, and the game environment, and the result sometimes lands away from the market's number, especially where the environment matters. A disagreement is not a claim that we are right and the market is wrong. It is a difference in view, shown so you can judge it yourself.

It is the chance a player scores at least one touchdown in a game, rushing or receiving. Touchdown Theory shows it as a percentage with the fair odds alongside. It is built from the player's expected touchdowns and calibrated against years of real outcomes, so a stated 30 percent should happen close to 30 percent of the time.

Wind is the largest weather effect: a strong wind pulls down the passing and kicking games, which lowers scoring and the projected total. Cold tends to suppress offense, and a dome removes weather entirely, which is why indoor games are often among the highest-scoring environments. Touchdown Theory treats these as measured adjustments learned from years of real games, not as hunches, so you can see how much of a total comes from the environment and separate it from the matchup.

Yes. A dome removes wind and cold from the game and tends to sit among the best scoring environments in the league. Deep cold tends to suppress offense. Touchdown Theory measures both and shows the effect on the projection rather than leaving it as a general impression.

It signals that an input behind that number is currently uncertain, for example a starting quarterback ruled out or an early-week weather forecast that has not firmed yet. Rather than show a falsely confident number, Touchdown Theory keeps the estimate clean and adds a small marker with a short explanation. As the week firms up, most markers clear on their own.

That is what the Accuracy page is for. It shows, openly, where the model has been right and where it has missed, and lets you slice performance by season, stadium, and team. Football carries real uncertainty and any single game can land far from the projection, so we hold the numbers to being logical and consistent, and we show the track record honestly rather than claim a win rate.

It rates each team's offense and defense by per-play efficiency, sets the two teams against each other for the specific matchup, estimates how many plays the game will hold from its likely shape and script, and produces one consistent picture: each team's points, the total, the spread, and the win probability. Because they come from the same source, those numbers always agree with each other. The full walkthrough is on the Methodology page.

Each player's projection is his share of what his team is expected to do, based on how he is used and how efficiently he produces. The players add back up to the team totals by construction, so nothing at the player level ever contradicts the game above it. There is a full walkthrough on the Methodology page.

By adapting, not hiding. When a starter is ruled out, his workload redistributes to the players behind him, the way the real game fills the gap. If a starting quarterback is out, the model shifts the usage and marks that the passing behind those numbers is now less certain, rather than showing the same confident line as before.

No, and that is by design. Touchdown Theory gives the odds of each outcome on its own, not the combined odds of several specific outcomes landing together in the same game, which is what pricing a parlay correctly requires. Producing those individual, traceable numbers is the same choice that makes the reasoning transparent. We would rather be honest about that than fake it.

No. Touchdown Theory does not publish picks, so there is no pick record to keep. What we do publish, on the Accuracy page, is how well the model's projections have matched real outcomes, which is a measure of the model, not a betting record.

There are no passwords. You sign in with a one-time code sent to your email address, which is simpler and more secure than a password you have to remember.

Yes. Touchdown Theory is for users 18 and older.

Touchdown Theory is free during the preseason. When the paid season begins, a subscription is 10 dollars a month or 50 dollars a year. Early subscribers who join during the founder window get a founder rate of 8 dollars a month or 40 dollars a year, and keep that rate for as long as their subscription stays continuously active.

Because the preseason is the single hardest slate to project, giving it away is the honest thing to do while the model's real domain, the regular season, is where the product is at its best. The free preseason is also the live proving ground where the projections run in real time before anyone is charged.

Because Touchdown Theory follows the NFL season, subscriptions automatically pause in the offseason, when you are not charged, and automatically resume at the start of the next season. We send an email reminder before billing resumes.

You can cancel any time from your account settings, which stops future charges and keeps your access through the end of the current billing period. Except where the law requires otherwise, payments are not refunded. Deliberately cancelling forfeits a founder rate if you had one, and the cancel screen warns you before you do.

No. An account is for one person. Sharing logins or codes is not allowed, and there are limits on concurrent use. This keeps the product sustainable as a small, single-tier subscription.

Touchdown Theory is built on publicly available NFL game and player statistics, official injury and roster reports, government weather forecasts, and betting lines from major sportsbooks. The value is not in the raw data, which is widely available, but in the model that turns it into calibrated, decomposable projections. That model is what Touchdown Theory builds and maintains.

Touchdown Theory compares its fair value against lines from DraftKings and FanDuel. Showing a sportsbook's odds is for factual comparison and is not an endorsement or affiliation.

During the season the slate updates through the week as new information arrives, rosters, injury reports, and firming weather forecasts, and each game's numbers settle just before it kicks off. Early-week numbers can carry the uncertainty marker and firm up as the week goes on.