Questions, answered plainly.

Touchdown Theory is a research and analysis tool for the NFL. It projects games and players and publishes fair value against the betting market, and for every number it shows the reasoning that produced it, from the team matchup and pace to player usage and the game environment. It is built to help you understand a game and form your own view, not to tell you what to bet.

No. Touchdown Theory is a research and analysis tool. It publishes projections, fair value against the market, and the reasoning behind both, and it lets you draw your own conclusions. It does not sell picks, it does not tell you what to bet, and it does not keep a win-loss record. What you do with the information is your decision.

It is for the person whose first instinct when shown a projection is to ask why. Sharp recreational bettors, fantasy and DFS players, and fans who want to understand a game rather than be handed a pick. If you want reasoning you can trace, this is built for you.

Two things. Most models hand you a number with no way to see how it was made. Touchdown Theory shows the full chain behind every number, so you can trace a projection back through its parts. And it puts the game environment, wind, cold, domes, and altitude, into that chain as a measured, visible adjustment, which most football coverage treats as a footnote.

Touchdown Theory expresses every projection as a probability first, for example a 31 percent chance a player scores a touchdown, and shows the fair odds that probability translates to alongside it. We place that next to what the sportsbooks are offering so you can see where our number and the market disagree. When our probability is higher than the price the market implies, our model thinks the outcome is more likely than the market is pricing. When it is lower, less likely. The gap is information about the disagreement, not a recommendation to act on it. Because we lead with the probability, our numbers are also directly comparable to prediction markets, not only sportsbooks.

Our model and the market weigh things differently. Touchdown Theory builds a projection from team efficiency, pace, player usage, and the game environment, and the result sometimes lands away from the market's number, especially where the environment matters. A disagreement is not a claim that we are right and the market is wrong. It is a difference in view, shown so you can judge it yourself.

It is the chance a player scores at least one touchdown in a game, rushing or receiving. Touchdown Theory shows it as a percentage with the fair odds alongside. It is built from the player's expected touchdowns and calibrated against years of real outcomes, so a stated 30 percent should happen close to 30 percent of the time.

Wind is the largest weather effect: a strong wind pulls down the passing and kicking games, which lowers scoring and the projected total. Cold tends to suppress offense, and a dome removes weather entirely, which is why indoor games are often among the highest-scoring environments. Touchdown Theory treats these as measured adjustments learned from years of real games, not as hunches, so you can see how much of a total comes from the environment and separate it from the matchup.

Yes. A dome removes wind and cold from the game and tends to sit among the best scoring environments in the league. Deep cold tends to suppress offense. Touchdown Theory measures both and shows the effect on the projection rather than leaving it as a general impression.

It signals that an input behind that number is currently uncertain, for example a starting quarterback ruled out or an early-week weather forecast that has not firmed yet. Rather than show a falsely confident number, Touchdown Theory keeps the estimate clean and adds a small marker with a short explanation. As the week firms up, most markers clear on their own.

It rates each team's offense and defense by per-play efficiency, sets the two teams against each other for the specific matchup, estimates how many plays the game will hold from its likely shape and script, and produces one consistent picture: each team's points, the total, the spread, and the win probability. Because they come from the same source, those numbers always agree with each other. The full walkthrough is on the Methodology page.

Each player's projection is his share of what his team is expected to do, based on how he is used and how efficiently he produces. The players add back up to the team totals by construction, so nothing at the player level ever contradicts the game above it. There is a full walkthrough on the Methodology page.

We refresh the board on a schedule through the week as teams file injury reports. Players ruled Out or Doubtful are not projected: they show as 'No projection' with their status, and their expected workload shifts to the teammates who absorb it. Players listed Questionable are projected only when a major sportsbook has posted a prop for them, a sign the market expects them to play. A player who missed the previous week stays off the board until a new report or the sportsbooks indicate he's expected to play. When a team's starting quarterback is out, we hold back our spread, total and that team's player projections for the game until our quarterback adjustment is ready. Sportsbook lines still show.

No, and that is by design. Touchdown Theory gives the odds of each outcome on its own, not the combined odds of several specific outcomes landing together in the same game, which is what pricing a parlay correctly requires. Producing those individual, traceable numbers is the same choice that makes the reasoning transparent. We would rather be honest about that than fake it.

No. We do not publish picks, so there is no pick record to keep.

No. There are no accounts and nothing to sign in to right now. Everything on the site is open to everyone.

Yes. Touchdown Theory is for users 18 and older.

Nothing right now. Everything is free, with no account and no card. A paid tier is coming, and when it does we will say so here and by email before anything changes. Nothing on the site becomes paid without notice.

Touchdown Theory is built on publicly available NFL game and player statistics, official injury and roster reports, government weather forecasts, and betting lines from major sportsbooks. The value is not in the raw data, which is widely available, but in the model that turns it into calibrated, decomposable projections. That model is what Touchdown Theory builds and maintains.

We show lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars next to our own projections. Showing a sportsbook's odds is for factual comparison and is not an endorsement of or affiliation with any sportsbook.

Numbers posted early in the week may show a "Waiting on…" label naming the input that hasn't arrived yet, like the injury report. They update once it does.