Touchdown Theory

Week 3

Passing TDs.

Projected passing touchdowns for every quarterback on the slate.

PlayerPosMatchupPass TDPass ydsAnytime TD
Jared GoffQBDET vs NYJ2.6424610.6%
Sam DarnoldQBSEA at WAS2.5429110.5%
Brock PurdyQBSF vs ARI2.4126918.0%
Jalen HurtsQBPHI at CHI1.9723419.5%
Lamar JacksonQBBAL at DAL1.9125126.8%
Patrick MahomesQBKC at MIA1.9023919.8%
Matthew StaffordQBLA at DEN1.8723610.7%
Bryce YoungQBCAR at CLE1.8719816.1%
Jordan LoveQBGB vs ATL1.772329.8%
Joe BurrowQBCIN at PIT1.6223410.5%
Kirk CousinsQBLV at NO1.6218810.6%
Dak PrescottQBDAL vs BAL1.5324712.6%
Josh AllenQBBUF vs LAC1.5023766.7%
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX vs NE1.4420414.2%
Kyler MurrayQBMIN at TB1.3821613.8%
Jaxson DartQBNYG vs TEN1.3423022.9%
Justin HerbertQBLAC at BUF1.3418812.9%
Bo NixQBDEN vs LA1.2620112.5%
Aaron RodgersQBPIT vs CIN1.2321413.7%
Jacoby BrissettQBARI at SF1.2221710.5%
Drake MayeQBNE at JAX1.2023715.2%
Daniel JonesQBIND vs HOU1.1922017.2%
Geno SmithQBNYJ at DET1.0417612.5%
Cam WardQBTEN at NYG0.9718517.2%
C.J. StroudQBHOU at IND0.9423811.4%
Michael Penix Jr.QBATL at GB0.9218214.3%
Malik WillisQBMIA vs KC0.8419922.3%
Jayden DanielsQBWAS vs SEA0.8315512.1%
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI vs PHI0.8219526.8%
Deshaun WatsonQBCLE vs CAR0.7518714.9%
Tyler ShoughQBNO vs LV0.7321014.0%
Baker MayfieldQBTB vs MIN0.6518413.1%

32 players shown, ordered by Pass TD. A player appears in a market only when he is projected for it, so a quarterback is absent from receptions rather than listed at zero.

These describe what the model expects, not what anyone should do about it. Where a fair price is shown it is what the probability translates to, placed so it can be compared against what a market is offering.