Touchdown Theory

Week 3

Receptions.

Projected receptions, with the targets they come from.

PlayerPosMatchupRecTgtRec ydsAnytime TD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA at WAS8.611.414575.4%
Trey McBrideTEARI at SF7.29.46224.2%
Puka NacuaWRLA at DEN6.910.39840.8%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET vs NYJ6.810.17670.9%
Bijan RobinsonRBATL at GB6.89.16147.3%
Rashee RiceWRKC at MIA6.78.97243.6%
Justin JeffersonWRMIN at TB6.610.48535.3%
Zay FlowersWRBAL at DAL6.38.010247.9%
CeeDee LambWRDAL vs BAL5.78.17831.5%
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ at DET5.79.86526.0%
Christian McCaffreyRBSF vs ARI5.36.04945.4%
Chris OlaveWRNO vs LV5.27.96216.2%
Jaylen WaddleWRDEN vs LA5.28.36824.9%
Nico CollinsWRHOU at IND5.19.07923.3%
Sam LaPortaTEDET vs NYJ5.06.45927.8%
Malik WashingtonWRMIA vs KC5.07.34019.1%
DeVonta SmithWRPHI at CHI5.07.87225.3%
Malik NabersWRNYG vs TEN4.98.97325.4%
Parker WashingtonWRJAX vs NE4.98.36426.4%
Drake LondonWRATL at GB4.88.45521.3%
George KittleTESF vs ARI4.75.45522.3%
Mark AndrewsTEBAL at DAL4.66.34326.1%
Deebo SamuelWRSF vs ARI4.55.45035.1%
Stefon DiggsWRWAS vs SEA4.56.64518.7%
Dallas GoedertTEPHI at CHI4.46.25141.5%
Isaiah LikelyTENYG vs TEN4.45.55019.5%
DK MetcalfWRPIT vs CIN4.37.85823.5%
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN at PIT4.36.74922.6%
Jalen CokerWRCAR at CLE4.36.05133.7%
Michael WilsonWRARI at SF4.26.54619.4%
Travis KelceTEKC at MIA4.25.34720.5%
Dalton SchultzTEHOU at IND4.15.94111.4%
Ladd McConkeyWRLAC at BUF4.17.35128.1%
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR at CLE4.17.55526.7%
DJ MooreWRBUF vs LAC4.06.85630.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.TECLE vs CAR4.05.94012.3%
T.J. HockensonTEMIN at TB4.05.03615.7%
George PickensWRDAL vs BAL4.05.55819.6%
Mike EvansWRSF vs ARI4.06.75339.9%
Dalton KincaidTEBUF vs LAC4.05.26215.4%
Brock BowersTELV at NO3.95.53817.0%
Kalif RaymondWRCHI vs PHI3.85.74514.6%
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE at JAX3.84.63934.3%
Tyler WarrenTEIND vs HOU3.85.83618.9%
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN at NYG3.86.04116.7%
De'Von AchaneRBMIA vs KC3.84.62631.7%
Michael MayerTELV at NO3.85.43113.9%
Christian WatsonWRGB vs ATL3.86.56439.0%
Alec PierceWRIND vs HOU3.76.57319.5%
Chase BrownRBCIN at PIT3.74.92329.8%
Khalil ShakirWRBUF vs LAC3.65.03517.4%
DeMario DouglasWRNE at JAX3.65.44518.2%
Mike GesickiTECIN at PIT3.65.64420.1%
Bucky IrvingRBTB vs MIN3.64.63128.0%
Gunnar HelmTETEN at NYG3.64.82911.1%
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET vs NYJ3.54.32765.4%
Carnell TateWRTEN at NYG3.56.14317.3%
Emeka EgbukaWRTB vs MIN3.57.34916.3%
Pat FreiermuthTEPIT vs CIN3.54.63819.3%
Jameson WilliamsWRDET vs NYJ3.45.75531.4%
Matthew GoldenWRGB vs ATL3.45.74520.2%
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL vs BAL3.44.31472.4%
Caleb DouglasWRMIA vs KC3.45.34315.4%
Ashton JeantyRBLV at NO3.44.52032.1%
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT vs CIN3.43.92532.9%
Kendrick BourneWRARI at SF3.34.54114.7%
Tucker KraftTEGB vs ATL3.35.15016.8%
Jake FergusonTEDAL vs BAL3.23.62211.9%
Keenan AllenWRIND vs HOU3.24.72815.4%
Evan EngramTEDEN vs LA3.15.02612.5%
Denzel BostonWRCLE vs CAR3.15.04317.6%
Jeremiyah LoveRBARI at SF3.14.31827.5%
Brenton StrangeTEJAX vs NE3.14.43115.0%
Romeo DoubsWRNE at JAX3.15.34117.7%
Greg DulcichTEMIA vs KC3.03.7379.8%
AJ BarnerTESEA at WAS3.03.63319.4%
Davante AdamsWRLA at DEN3.06.34128.0%
Tee HigginsWRCIN at PIT3.05.35021.7%
Hunter HenryTENE at JAX3.04.33711.9%
Jayden ReedWRGB vs ATL2.94.22918.4%
KC ConcepcionWRCLE vs CAR2.94.53515.8%
Terry McLaurinWRWAS vs SEA2.95.43615.1%
Jonathan TaylorRBIND vs HOU2.93.62283.0%
Juwan JohnsonTENO vs LV2.94.0349.8%
Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC at MIA2.83.02742.7%
Cade OttonTETB vs MIN2.84.4269.4%
Mack HollinsWRNE at JAX2.83.93514.7%
Travis Etienne Jr.RBNO vs LV2.73.72129.0%
Quentin JohnstonWRLAC at BUF2.75.33519.1%
Tre TuckerWRLV at NO2.74.63017.4%
Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATL at GB2.74.22410.9%
Tyjae SpearsRBTEN at NYG2.63.31622.3%
Courtland SuttonWRDEN vs LA2.64.63217.1%
Luther Burden IIIWRCHI vs PHI2.64.33514.4%
Josh DownsWRIND vs HOU2.64.02515.1%
Chris Godwin Jr.WRTB vs MIN2.64.32713.4%
Tommy TrembleTECAR at CLE2.63.72112.6%
Raheim SandersRBCLE vs CAR2.63.21820.7%
Dontayvion WicksWRPHI at CHI2.54.13823.9%
Devaughn VeleWRNO vs LV2.53.92813.5%
Tre' HarrisWRLAC at BUF2.54.22515.3%
Mason TaylorTENYJ at DET2.43.91810.8%
Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX vs NE2.44.33014.4%
Devin SingletaryRBNYG vs TEN2.42.41923.1%
Michael Pittman Jr.WRPIT vs CIN2.43.32514.5%
James Cook IIIRBBUF vs LAC2.43.01937.6%
Xavier HutchinsonWRHOU at IND2.34.52913.9%
Colby ParkinsonTELA at DEN2.33.52514.7%
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE vs CAR2.33.01542.6%
Rico DowdleRBPIT vs CIN2.33.31625.8%
Xavier WorthyWRKC at MIA2.33.62919.7%
Noah FantTENO vs LV2.32.9199.0%
David NjokuTELAC at BUF2.33.62111.4%
Ryan FlournoyWRDAL vs BAL2.33.02614.7%
Kyren WilliamsRBLA at DEN2.33.11941.6%
RJ HarveyRBDEN vs LA2.22.81620.2%
Josh OliverTEMIN at TB2.23.02511.1%
Malachi FieldsWRNYG vs TEN2.23.62815.1%
Makai LemonWRPHI at CHI2.13.52516.1%
Tyler AllgeierRBARI at SF2.12.31220.9%
Chuba HubbardRBCAR at CLE2.12.91534.5%
Rashid ShaheedWRSEA at WAS2.13.42719.3%
Chig OkonkwoTEWAS vs SEA2.13.3179.0%
Oronde GadsdenTELAC at BUF2.03.02810.3%
Cooper KuppWRSEA at WAS2.03.03017.9%
David MontgomeryRBHOU at IND2.02.51750.8%
Breece HallRBNYJ at DET2.02.82050.5%
Rome OdunzeWRCHI vs PHI2.05.03414.3%
Jakobi MeyersWRJAX vs NE2.03.02118.1%
Alvin KamaraRBNO vs LV2.02.31122.9%
Jadarian PriceRBSEA at WAS1.92.51430.3%
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI at CHI1.92.91334.0%
Jalen NailorWRLV at NO1.93.62616.0%
Adonai MitchellWRNYJ at DET1.94.02814.9%
Samaje PerineRBCIN at PIT1.82.31117.5%
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN vs LA1.82.3622.0%
Jerry JeudyWRCLE vs CAR1.83.72112.4%
Justice HillRBBAL at DAL1.82.11524.0%
Tyler HigbeeTELA at DEN1.82.62211.2%
Kenyon SadiqTENYJ at DET1.82.61612.8%
Jahan DotsonWRATL at GB1.73.82213.6%
Colston LovelandTECHI vs PHI1.73.6229.3%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI at SF1.73.12513.9%
Roman WilsonWRPIT vs CIN1.73.12114.4%
Jack BechWRLV at NO1.72.51715.7%
Rachaad WhiteRBWAS vs SEA1.62.1716.7%
Drew SampleTECIN at PIT1.62.2129.6%
TreVeyon HendersonRBNE at JAX1.62.01023.4%
Antonio WilliamsWRWAS vs SEA1.62.81814.4%
Emmett JohnsonRBKC at MIA1.62.01127.3%
Darnell WashingtonTEPIT vs CIN1.62.21710.2%
Omarion HamptonRBLAC at BUF1.61.9950.5%
Tony PollardRBTEN at NYG1.62.2932.1%
Derrick HenryRBBAL at DAL1.62.01878.8%
Aaron Jones Sr.RBMIN at TB1.52.41140.6%
Ted Hurst IIIWRTB vs MIN1.52.61811.7%
Demarcus RobinsonWRSF vs ARI1.52.02519.4%
Jonnu SmithTEGB vs ATL1.52.41110.0%
Josh CameronWRJAX vs NE1.52.41616.2%
Troy FranklinWRDEN vs LA1.52.41513.4%
Jordan AddisonWRMIN at TB1.42.92213.6%
Cole KmetTECHI vs PHI1.42.81710.3%
Kenny GainwellRBTB vs MIN1.41.8917.2%
Bryce LanceWRNO vs LV1.42.21711.1%
Demond ClaiborneRBMIN at TB1.41.91023.0%
Andrei IosivasWRCIN at PIT1.32.31813.4%
Luke FarrellTESF vs ARI1.31.61110.3%
Jonathon BrooksRBCAR at CLE1.31.91317.6%
Brevyn Spann-FordTEDAL vs BAL1.31.6128.7%
John BatesTEWAS vs SEA1.32.2108.3%
Najee HarrisRBNYG vs TEN1.31.21121.9%
Darren WallerTECAR at CLE1.31.91410.0%
Theo JohnsonTENYG vs TEN1.31.9158.9%
Marvin Mims Jr.WRDEN vs LA1.21.61112.0%
Travis HunterWRJAX vs NE1.21.91111.8%
Elic AyomanorWRTEN at NYG1.12.81415.8%
Bhayshul TutenRBJAX vs NE1.11.61022.5%
Cyrus AllenWRKC at MIA1.11.61413.7%
Chris BellWRMIA vs KC1.11.81511.4%
Dawson KnoxTEBUF vs LAC1.11.5128.6%
Cam SkatteboRBNYG vs TEN1.11.41045.8%
Kayshon BoutteWRHOU at IND1.11.92011.6%
Lan LarisonRBNE at JAX1.11.5716.3%
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI vs PHI1.11.81060.4%
Isaiah WilliamsWRNYJ at DET1.11.6811.6%
Kaelon BlackRBSF vs ARI1.11.3829.5%
Darnell MooneyWRNYG vs TEN1.12.11512.2%
Olamide ZaccheausWRATL at GB1.11.8711.4%
Hollywood BrownWRPHI at CHI1.11.71413.1%
Noah GrayTEKC at MIA1.11.799.6%
Seth McGowanRBIND vs HOU1.11.4619.2%
Keon ColemanWRBUF vs LAC1.01.81212.5%
Adam TrautmanTEDEN vs LA1.01.398.1%
Kyle MonangaiRBCHI vs PHI1.01.91029.2%
Jaylin NoelWRHOU at IND1.01.51410.8%
Nate BoerkircherTEJAX vs NE1.01.587.9%
Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMIA vs KC1.01.81211.4%
Eli RaridonTENE at JAX1.01.4811.9%
Mitchell EvansTECAR at CLE1.01.589.0%
Ameer AbdullahRBJAX vs NE1.01.1515.6%
Will KacmarekTEMIA vs KC1.01.597.9%
Jalen McMillanWRTB vs MIN1.01.41410.6%
Darius SlaytonWRIND vs HOU1.01.71311.6%
Mike Washington Jr.RBLV at NO0.91.4616.6%
Foster MoreauTEHOU at IND0.91.487.6%
Malik BensonWRLV at NO0.91.61012.1%
Chris MooreWRBAL at DAL0.91.82213.6%
Woody MarksRBHOU at IND0.91.4720.6%
Rashod BatemanWRBAL at DAL0.92.01114.0%
Joshua PalmerWRBUF vs LAC0.91.61615.3%
Jauan JenningsWRMIN at TB0.91.71212.0%
Daniel BellingerTETEN at NYG0.91.3137.8%
Jared WayneWRHOU at IND0.91.01010.0%
Matthew HibnerTEBAL at DAL0.91.298.7%
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS vs SEA0.91.4522.4%
Elijah SarrattWRBAL at DAL0.91.41113.1%
Chimere DikeWRTEN at NYG0.91.4811.8%
Pat BryantWRDEN vs LA0.91.41011.2%
Carsen RyanTECLE vs CAR0.91.287.6%
Brock WrightTEDET vs NYJ0.91.369.6%
MarShawn LloydRBGB vs ATL0.81.4618.6%
Dohnte MeyersWRCIN at PIT0.81.31211.9%
KaVontae TurpinWRDAL vs BAL0.81.01211.4%
Montorie Foster Jr.WRSEA at WAS0.81.31213.7%
Seydou TraoreTEMIA vs KC0.81.177.6%
Jake BriningstoolTEKC at MIA0.81.078.6%
Josh JacobsRBGB vs ATL0.81.1616.2%
Rasheen AliRBBAL at DAL0.80.9617.7%
George HolaniRBSEA at WAS0.81.0721.3%
Durham SmytheTEBAL at DAL0.81.058.1%
Jawhar JordanRBHOU at IND0.80.8417.0%
Jeremy RuckertTENYJ at DET0.81.067.5%
Brashard SmithRBKC at MIA0.81.0517.8%
Xavier LegetteWRCAR at CLE0.81.7712.7%
Tory HortonWRSEA at WAS0.71.21114.5%
Jordan WhittingtonWRLA at DEN0.71.0811.2%
Skyler BellWRBUF vs LAC0.71.2911.7%
Braelon AllenRBNYJ at DET0.71.3623.1%
John Metchie IIIWRCAR at CLE0.71.1511.7%
Sione VakiRBDET vs NYJ0.70.9517.6%
Will ShipleyRBPHI at CHI0.70.9515.9%
Tyquan ThorntonWRKC at MIA0.71.21612.6%
Jonah ColemanRBDEN vs LA0.70.9415.7%
Zavion ThomasWRCHI vs PHI0.71.3810.8%
Bo MeltonWRGB vs ATL0.71.1811.4%
Dyami BrownWRWAS vs SEA0.71.6611.0%
Keaton MitchellRBLAC at BUF0.71.0519.5%
Chris BrooksRBGB vs ATL0.61.0515.8%
Gavin BartholomewTEMIN at TB0.60.967.6%
Elijah HigginsTEARI at SF0.60.867.2%
Jermar JeffersonRBMIN at TB0.60.9518.0%
Luke SchoonmakerTEDAL vs BAL0.60.967.4%
CJ DonaldsonRBNO vs LV0.60.9416.5%
Marlin KleinTEHOU at IND0.60.977.5%
Israel AbanikandaRBDAL vs BAL0.60.8418.2%
Jashaun CorbinRBDAL vs BAL0.60.8418.2%
Oscar DelpTENO vs LV0.60.957.0%
Tez JohnsonWRTB vs MIN0.61.2710.8%
Sincere McCormickRBSF vs ARI0.60.7519.5%
Emanuel WilsonRBSEA at WAS0.60.7418.3%
Gary BrightwellRBCIN at PIT0.60.8415.6%
Jordan MimsRBPHI at CHI0.60.8418.0%
Quintin MorrisTEJAX vs NE0.51.047.5%
Blake WhiteheartTECLE vs CAR0.51.327.3%
Nicholas SingletonRBTEN at NYG0.50.8418.2%
Jordan WatersRBLA at DEN0.50.8417.3%
Lew NicholsRBPIT vs CIN0.50.7317.6%
Emari DemercadoRBDAL vs BAL0.50.7418.6%
Isaiah DavisRBNYJ at DET0.50.8516.9%
Bam KnightRBARI at SF0.50.7315.1%
Jaylin LaneWRWAS vs SEA0.51.0610.0%
Zachariah BranchWRATL at GB0.50.8510.3%
Tyler BadieRBDEN vs LA0.50.8314.4%
Jalen TolbertWRMIA vs KC0.50.9510.2%
Jahdae WalkerWRCHI vs PHI0.50.9612.7%
Ty JohnsonRBBUF vs LAC0.50.7516.6%
Mike Washington Jr.RBLV at NO0.50.7315.5%
Brian Robinson Jr.RBATL at GB0.50.7121.6%
Tom KennedyWRDET vs NYJ0.50.5410.6%
Salvon AhmedRBCHI vs PHI0.40.8317.6%
Colbie YoungWRCIN at PIT0.40.7610.7%
Ian WheelerRBBUF vs LAC0.40.6317.7%
Jacob CowingWRSF vs ARI0.40.6611.1%
Drew OgletreeTEIND vs HOU0.40.737.4%
Barion BrownWRNO vs LV0.40.7510.3%
Efton Chism IIIWRNE at JAX0.40.41010.0%
Roman HembyRBLV at NO0.40.6314.7%
Devontez WalkerWRBAL at DAL0.40.51011.6%
Germie BernardWRPIT vs CIN0.40.7510.5%
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RBNYG vs TEN0.40.5316.8%
Arian SmithWRNYJ at DET0.41.1311.0%
Jimmy Horn Jr.WRCAR at CLE0.40.7410.6%
Calvin RidleyWRTEN at NYG0.40.9710.3%
Charlie WoernerTEATL at GB0.40.527.0%
Jaylen WrightRBMIA vs KC0.40.7316.9%
Odell Beckham Jr.WRNYG vs TEN0.40.6510.3%
Terrance FergusonTELA at DEN0.41.298.8%
Derius DavisWRLAC at BUF0.40.7210.2%
Jordan JamesRBSF vs ARI0.40.3317.0%
Blake CorumRBLA at DEN0.40.6220.7%
Isaac TeSlaaWRDET vs NYJ0.40.7612.5%
Tank BigsbyRBPHI at CHI0.40.5417.1%
Mo Alie-CoxTEIND vs HOU0.40.637.1%
Konata MumpfieldWRLA at DEN0.41.0311.2%
Jaleel McLaughlinRBCLE vs CAR0.40.6218.6%
Ben SinnottTEWAS vs SEA0.40.536.8%
Ray DavisRBBUF vs LAC0.40.5316.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBJAX vs NE0.40.5317.0%
Brenen ThompsonWRLAC at BUF0.40.7410.4%
Nate AdkinsTEDEN vs LA0.40.627.2%
Tay MartinWRDET vs NYJ0.40.4410.2%
Austin HooperTEATL at GB0.40.546.9%
Erick All Jr.TECIN at PIT0.40.537.3%
Ashton DulinWRIND vs HOU0.30.8710.3%
Elijah ArroyoTESEA at WAS0.30.657.9%
Jaret PattersonRBLAC at BUF0.30.5116.9%
Jordan WatkinsWRSF vs ARI0.30.4510.3%
Kimani VidalRBLAC at BUF0.30.5316.1%
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWRIND vs HOU0.30.629.8%
Kevin Austin Jr.WRNO vs LV0.30.539.3%
Skyy MooreWRGB vs ATL0.30.6510.1%
Hunter LongTEARI at SF0.30.426.9%
Jalen RoyalsWRKC at MIA0.30.4110.0%
Charlie KolarTELAC at BUF0.30.547.3%
Sam RoushTECHI vs PHI0.30.536.8%
Kaytron AllenRBWAS vs SEA0.30.4214.8%
Johnny MundtTEPHI at CHI0.30.647.2%
Jonathan MingoWRDAL vs BAL0.30.8610.4%
Eli HeidenreichRBPIT vs CIN0.30.4215.5%
Braxton BerriosWRNYG vs TEN0.20.329.4%
Eric SaubertTESEA at WAS0.20.527.5%
Jackson HawesTEBUF vs LAC0.20.336.9%
Josh WhyleTEGB vs ATL0.20.326.9%
Xavier SmithWRLA at DEN0.20.349.6%
Sean TuckerRBTB vs MIN0.20.4115.0%
Ben SkowronekWRPIT vs CIN0.20.349.8%
Jacob SaylorsRBDET vs NYJ0.20.3115.8%
Tai FeltonWRMIN at TB0.20.228.8%
Ian ThomasTELV at NO0.20.226.5%
Darius CooperWRPHI at CHI0.20.329.3%
Isaiah BondWRCLE vs CAR0.20.549.3%
AJ DillonRBCAR at CLE0.20.2115.0%
Kendre MillerRBNO vs LV0.20.2128.4%
David Martin-RobinsonTETEN at NYG0.20.316.7%
LeQuint Allen Jr.RBJAX vs NE0.20.2113.4%
Frank Gore Jr.RBBUF vs LAC0.20.2114.8%
Tyler ConklinTEDET vs NYJ0.20.326.9%
Ollie Gordon IIRBMIA vs KC0.20.2114.9%
Tyler GoodsonRBDAL vs BAL0.20.2115.2%
Velus Jones Jr.RBSEA at WAS0.20.2115.7%
British BrooksRBHOU at IND0.20.2114.8%
Kyle WilliamsWRNE at JAX0.20.439.7%
Corey KinerRBNE at JAX0.10.2117.3%
Kaleb JohnsonRBGB vs ATL0.10.3113.9%
Brycen TremayneWRCAR at CLE0.10.219.0%
David MooreWRCAR at CLE0.10.119.1%
Roschon JohnsonRBCHI vs PHI0.10.2115.3%
Dylan LaubeRBLV at NO0.10.2113.0%
Josh WilliamsRBTB vs MIN0.10.2113.9%
Jalen BrooksWRARI at SF0.10.229.0%
Tylan WallaceWRCLE vs CAR0.10.218.7%
Travis HomerRBPIT vs CIN0.10.1114.7%
DeeJay DallasRBMIN at TB0.10.9114.8%
Dareke YoungWRLV at NO0.10.128.6%
Robert TonyanTEPIT vs CIN0.10.106.0%
Ronnie RiversRBLA at DEN0.10.8116.7%
Chris BlairWRATL at GB0.10.118.5%
Tahj BrooksRBCIN at PIT0.10.2113.4%
Dalen CambreWRNYG vs TEN0.10.118.6%
Dominic LovettWRDET vs NYJ0.10.119.0%
Simi FehokoWRARI at SF0.10.118.4%
Myles PriceWRMIN at TB0.10.118.4%
Payne DurhamTETB vs MIN0.10.316.3%
E.J. JenkinsTEPHI at CHI0.00.106.1%
Ko KieftTETB vs MIN0.00.105.8%
CJ DippreTENE at JAX0.00.005.7%
Cameron LatuTENE at JAX0.00.005.7%

377 players shown, ordered by Rec. A player appears in a market only when he is projected for it, so a quarterback is absent from receptions rather than listed at zero.

These describe what the model expects, not what anyone should do about it. Where a fair price is shown it is what the probability translates to, placed so it can be compared against what a market is offering.