Touchdown Theory

Week 2

Environment.

Two games with the same teams are not the same game. Wind changes what a passing offense can do, cold changes the ball, a roof removes both, and elevation changes how far a kick carries. These are the conditions the model reads before it adjusts anything, shown here on their own so you can see what it is working from.

14 of 16 games have a forecast, recorded Tue Sep 15, 10:00 AM ET. Sorted by wind.

GameKickoffVenueRoofElevTempWindPrecip
MIN at CHISun Sep 20 1:00 PMChicagoopen57872F15 NNE38%
GB at NYJSun Sep 20 1:00 PMEast Rutherfordopen377F12 SW39%
NO at BALSun Sep 20 1:00 PMBaltimoreopen3383F10 SW7%
PIT at NESun Sep 20 1:00 PMFoxboroughopen28568F9 SW49%
IND at KCSun Sep 20 8:20 PMKansas Cityopen90971F8 N15%
CLE at TBSun Sep 20 1:00 PMTampaopen1086F7 SSE26%
JAX at DENSun Sep 20 4:05 PMDenveropen528075F6 ENE33%
CAR at ATLSun Sep 20 1:00 PMAtlantaretractable105085F5 SE16%
CIN at HOUSun Sep 20 1:00 PMHoustonretractable10591F5 E3%
PHI at TENSun Sep 20 1:00 PMNashvilleopen45091F5 SW6%
SEA at ARISun Sep 20 4:25 PMGlendaleretractable1060102F5 SE1%
WAS at DALSun Sep 20 4:25 PMArlingtonretractable60495F5 E26%
DET at BUFThu Sep 17 8:15 PM70F3 W22%
MIA at SFSun Sep 20 4:25 PMSanta Claraopen7272F3 W0%
LV at LACSun Sep 20 4:05 PMInglewoodfixed roof130
NYG at LAMon Sep 21 8:15 PMInglewoodfixed roof130

Elevation is in feet. A blank forecast is not always a gap in the data: a fixed roof makes the forecast irrelevant, and a game played outside the National Weather Service's coverage cannot have one. Each game page says which applies to it.

Not published yet: what the model does with these. The environment model records its wind, cold, dome and elevation adjustments as separate values in points, so each game will show the projection before environment, each adjustment applied to it, and the result. Those arrive with the projections.