Week 8

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

Book

The projection

Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

	Touchdown Theory	Market consensus	Difference
Spread	BUF -6	BUF -3	3 toward BUF
Total	51.5	54.5	3 lower
Moneyline	BAL +197BUF -197	BAL +145BUF -173
Win chance	BUF 66%	BUF 61%	BUF +5%

Market	BAL	BUF
Spread	BAL -3Best available line: FanDuel	BUF +3Best available line: DraftKings
Total	Over 54.5Best available line: FanDuel	Under 54.5Best available line: DraftKings
Moneyline	BAL +148Best available line: FanDuel	BUF -170Best available line: DraftKings

Odds updated 21 min ago.

Line movement

DraftKingsTue 4:02 PM: BUF -2.5 / 52.5 → Wed 2:01 PM: BUF -3 / 51.5 → Thu 3:01 PM: BUF -3.5 / 51.5 → Thu 5:01 PM: BUF -3 / 51.5 → Sat 10:30 AM: BUF -3 / 52.5 → Mon 5:28 PM: BUF -3.5 / 53.5 → Fri 9:18 AM: BUF -3.5 / 54.5 → Fri 9:30 PM: BUF -3 / 54.5
FanDuelTue 4:02 PM: BUF -2.5 / 53.5 → Wed 8:00 PM: BUF -3 / 53.5 → Mon 5:28 PM: BUF -3.5 / 53.5 → Fri 9:18 AM: BUF -3.5 / 54.5 → Fri 2:30 PM: BUF -3 / 54.5
CaesarsTue 6:01 PM: BUF -2.5 / 52.5 → Wed 8:00 PM: BUF -3 / 52.5 → Thu 3:01 PM: BUF -3.5 / 52.5 → Sat 10:30 AM: BUF -3 / 52.5 → Mon 5:28 PM: BUF -3.5 / 53.5 → Fri 9:18 AM: BUF -3 / 54.5

Market numbers are recorded as the feed saw them, shown for comparison, not as a recommendation.

How the number is built

The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.

BUF28.7

28.7Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=28.7

BAL22.9

22.9Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=22.9

Total51.6

51.6Before environment

Where the player numbers come from

The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.

Buffalo Billsprojected 38.2 pass plays, 25.5 run plays

Team line	Projected	Sum of players
Pass attempts	32.7	32.7
Pass yards	254.2	254.2
Receiving yards	254.2	254.2
Pass touchdowns	1.44	1.44
Receiving touchdowns	1.44	1.44
Carries

Environment

Surface

a_turf

Temperature

63F

Wind

3 mph S

Chance of precipitation

Humidity

43%

Forecast

Partly Sunny

Issued 53 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.

Injury report

Baltimore Ravens15 listed

Adam RandallRBNeckFull Participation in Practice

Broderick WashingtonDEAnkleFull Participation in Practice

Calais CampbellDTNot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice

Jaylinn HawkinsSKneeDid Not Participate In Practice

John JenkinsDTKneeFull Participation in Practice

This week's slate Methodology

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

+(+0.0)Environment, BAL

Wind

BAL 0.00, BUF 0.00 EPA on passing

Cold

not applied

Indoors

not applied

Elevation

not applied

Wind and cold are recorded as an effect on passing efficiency, not as points, and the conversion between the two is not published, so they are shown in their own units rather than added into the chain above. Indoors and elevation are recorded in points.

Two earlier links, per-play efficiency and the matchup adjustment, are computed and discarded rather than stored, so they cannot be shown yet.

live-20261030T161828Z, generated Fri Oct 30, 12:18 PM ET

Player	Pos	Pass	Rush	Rec	Tgt	Snap %
Josh Allen	QB	254.2	34.0			98%
James Cook III	RB		98.3	14.3	2.2	70%
Dalton Kincaid	TE		0.0	53.1	4.9	66%
DJ Moore	WR		2.3	42.6	5.1	91%
Khalil Shakir	WR		0.0	42.4	5.2	96%
Keon Coleman	WR			33.5	3.8	98%
Ty Johnson	RB		5.3	24.8	2.9	27%
Joshua Palmer	WR			22.7	2.1	55%
Dawson Knox	TE		0.1	13.8	1.9	65%
Ray Davis	RB		4.2	4.4	0.5	12%
Jackson Hawes	TE			1.5	0.2	37%
Greg Dortch	WR		0.2	1.2	0.2	13%
Kyle Allen	QB					12%

Baltimore Ravensprojected 35.2 pass plays, 24.6 run plays

Team line	Projected	Sum of players
Pass attempts	30.9	30.9
Pass yards	218.5	218.5
Receiving yards	218.5	218.5
Pass touchdowns	1.68	1.68
Receiving touchdowns	1.68	1.68
Carries	26.6	26.6
Rush yards	148.1	148.1
Rush touchdowns	1.43	1.43

Player	Pos	Pass	Rush	Rec	Tgt	Snap %
Lamar Jackson	QB	218.5	23.0			87%
Derrick Henry	RB		76.7	11.8	1.7	68%
Zay Flowers	WR		3.7	81.3	7.7	70%
Mark Andrews	TE		1.8

Snap % is the share of the team's offensive snaps the player is projected to be on the field for; it reads straight from the projection row (proj_snap_share). Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.

live-20261030T161828Z

John SimpsonGGroinLimited Participation in Practice

Kyle HamiltonSKneeLimited Participation in Practice

Lamar JacksonQBAnkleFull Participation in Practice

Mark AndrewsTEHandFull Participation in Practice

Matthew HibnerTEHandFull Participation in Practice

Olaivavega IoaneGKneeLimited Participation in Practice

Ronnie StanleyTToe, AnkleFull Participation in Practice

Roquan SmithLBKneeLimited Participation in Practice

T.J. TampaCBKneeFull Participation in Practice

Trey HendricksonLBFingerFull Participation in Practice

Buffalo Bills12 listed

Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGBack, ElbowFull Participation in Practice

Bradley ChubbLBChest, ThumbLimited Participation in Practice

Dalton KincaidTEChestLimited Participation in Practice

Dee AlfordCBAnkleDid Not Participate In Practice

DJ MooreWRShoulderLimited Participation in Practice

Ed OliverDEKneeFull Participation in Practice

Joe AndreessenLBKneeLimited Participation in Practice

Ray DavisRBIllnessDid Not Participate In Practice

Spencer BrownTBackDid Not Participate In Practice

T.J. SandersDEShoulderFull Participation in Practice

TJ ParkerLBKneeLimited Participation in Practice

Tyrell ShaversWRKneeLimited Participation in Practice