Week 8

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Final: CAR 19, GB 27

Book

The projection

Final CAR 19, GB 27

Pregame projection · frozen at kickoff. These numbers were our final pre-game read; the market cells show the last pre-kickoff line, not any in-play price.

	Touchdown Theory	Market consensusClosing	Difference
Spread	GB -5.5	GB -3.5	2 toward GB
Total	46.5	47.5	1 lower
Moneyline	CAR +189GB -189	CAR +166GB -198
Win chance	GB 65%	GB 64%	GB +1%

Closed 8:15 PM ET.

Sportsbook prop data updating

Line movement

DraftKingsTue 4:02 PM: GB -2.5 / 46.5 → Tue 6:01 PM: GB -3 / 47.5 → Mon 5:28 PM: GB -3.5 / 47.5(Closed)
FanDuelTue 4:02 PM: GB -3 / 45.5 → Wed 8:00 PM: GB -3 / 46.5 → Mon 5:28 PM: GB -3.5 / 47.5(Closed)
CaesarsTue 6:01 PM: GB -3 / 47.5 → Wed 6:00 AM: GB -3 / 46 → Wed 12:01 PM: GB -3 / 46.5 → Sat 6:01 AM: GB -3 / 47 → Mon 5:28 PM: GB -3.5 / 48(Closed)

Market numbers are recorded as the feed saw them, shown for comparison, not as a recommendation.

How the number is built

Sportsbook prop data updating

The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.

GB26.0

26.3Before environment+(-0.3)Environment=26.0

CAR20.5

20.8Before environment+(-0.3)Environment=20.5

Total46.5

47.1

Where the player numbers come from

The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.

Green Bay Packersprojected 36.4 pass plays, 24.3 run plays

Sportsbook prop data updating

Team line	Projected	Sum of players
Pass attempts	33.1	33.1
Pass yards	230.9	230.9
Receiving yards	230.9	230.9
Pass touchdowns	1.44	1.44
Receiving touchdowns	1.44

Environment

Venue

Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Roof

open

Elevation

640 ft

Surface

grass

Temperature

53F

Wind

7 mph WNW

Chance of precipitation

Humidity

66%

Forecast

Clear

Issued 11 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.

Major renovations 2001-2003, 2012-2013.

Injury report

Carolina Panthers8 listed

Akayleb EvansCBOut (week 8 report)Triceps, KneeDid Not Participate In Practice

Bobby Brown IIIDTQuestionable (week 8 report)HandFull Participation in Practice

Bryce YoungQBKneeFull Participation in Practice

Damien LewisGOut (week 8 report)KneeDid Not Participate In Practice

Jaelan Phillips

This week's slate Lambeau Field Methodology

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

+(-0.3)Environment, GB

+(-0.3)Environment, CAR

Wind

CAR -0.51, GB -0.50 EPA on passing

Cold

not applied

Indoors

not applied

Elevation

not applied

Wind and cold are recorded as an effect on passing efficiency, not as points, and the conversion between the two is not published, so they are shown in their own units rather than added into the chain above. Indoors and elevation are recorded in points.

Two earlier links, per-play efficiency and the matchup adjustment, are computed and discarded rather than stored, so they cannot be shown yet.

live-20261029T161846Z, generated Thu Oct 29, 12:19 PM ET

Player	Pos	Pass	Rush	Rec	Tgt	Snap %
Jordan Love	QB	230.9	4.9			98%
Christian Watson	WR		0.0	91.7	8.8	100%
Josh Jacobs	RB		40.8	21.4	3.6	50%
Tucker Kraft	TE		0.6	52.8	5.7	100%
MarShawn Lloyd	RB		24.8	7.5	1.9	37%
Savion Williams	WR		4.9	21.1	2.6	100%
Pierre Strong Jr.	RB		12.5	10.3	2.2	30%
Kaleb Johnson	RB		13.1	1.3	0.3	20%
Bo Melton	WR		0.0	8.9	1.7	64%
Jonnu Smith	TE		0.1	7.5	1.1	53%
Tyrod Taylor	QB		5.3			8%
J. Michael Sturdivant	WR		0.0	4.9	0.8	37%
Mark Redman	TE		0.0	3.6	0.5	54%
Matthew Golden	WR	No projection · Questionable (injury)

Carolina Panthersprojected 36.9 pass plays, 24.0 run plays

Sportsbook prop data updating

Team line	Projected	Sum of players
Pass attempts	33.4	33.4
Pass yards	196.3	196.3
Receiving yards	196.3	196.3
Pass touchdowns	1.32	1.32
Receiving touchdowns	1.32	1.32
Carries	25.1	25.1
Rush yards	107.6	107.6
Rush touchdowns	0.83	0.83

Player	Pos	Pass	Rush	Rec	Tgt	Snap %
Bryce Young	QB	196.3	6.9			92%
Chuba Hubbard	RB		54.1	13.0	2.8	80%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR		0.5	55.8	7.6	100%
Jalen Coker	WR		0.4

Snap % is the share of the team's offensive snaps the player is projected to be on the field for; it reads straight from the projection row (proj_snap_share). Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.

live-20261029T161846Z

Did Not Participate In Practice

Jalen CokerWRShoulderFull Participation in Practice

Ryan FitzgeraldKIllnessFull Participation in Practice

Torricelli Simpkins IIIGOut (week 8 report)AnkleDid Not Participate In Practice

Green Bay Packers9 listed

Aaron BanksGKnee, ToeFull Participation in Practice

Anthony CampbellDTQuestionable (week 8 report)AnkleLimited Participation in Practice

Benjamin St-JusteCBHamstringFull Participation in Practice

Brenton Cox Jr.LBQuestionable (week 8 report)QuadricepLimited Participation in Practice

Devonte WyattDTQuestionable (week 8 report)AnkleLimited Participation in Practice

Matthew GoldenWRQuestionable (week 8 report)Shoulder, FootLimited Participation in Practice

Sean RhyanCOut (week 8 report)AnkleDid Not Participate In Practice

Travis GloverGOut (week 8 report)KneeDid Not Participate In Practice

Zaire FranklinLBOut (week 8 report)ShinDid Not Participate In Practice