Touchdown Theory

Week 3

This Week's QBs.

Every starting quarterback with his full projected line, passing and rushing.

PlayerPosMatchupPass ydsPass TDRush ydsCarriesAnytime TD
Sam DarnoldQBSEA at WAS2912.5441.310.5%
Brock PurdyQBSF vs ARI2692.41183.818.0%
Lamar JacksonQBBAL at DAL2511.91315.126.8%
Dak PrescottQBDAL vs BAL2471.5371.912.6%
Jared GoffQBDET vs NYJ2462.6431.610.6%
Patrick MahomesQBKC at MIA2391.90283.919.8%
C.J. StroudQBHOU at IND2380.9492.011.4%
Josh AllenQBBUF vs LAC2371.50336.566.7%
Drake MayeQBNE at JAX2371.20214.115.2%
Matthew StaffordQBLA at DEN2361.8711.810.7%
Jalen HurtsQBPHI at CHI2341.97275.419.5%
Joe BurrowQBCIN at PIT2341.6292.710.5%
Jordan LoveQBGB vs ATL2321.7782.39.8%
Jaxson DartQBNYG vs TEN2301.34265.022.9%
Daniel JonesQBIND vs HOU2201.19102.817.2%
Jacoby BrissettQBARI at SF2171.2281.810.5%
Kyler MurrayQBMIN at TB2161.38193.613.8%
Aaron RodgersQBPIT vs CIN2141.2372.613.7%
Tyler ShoughQBNO vs LV2100.7382.814.0%
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX vs NE2041.44174.514.2%
Bo NixQBDEN vs LA2011.26153.612.5%
Malik WillisQBMIA vs KC1990.84255.022.3%
Bryce YoungQBCAR at CLE1981.87153.016.1%
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI vs PHI1950.82275.126.8%
Kirk CousinsQBLV at NO1881.6202.210.6%
Justin HerbertQBLAC at BUF1881.34203.212.9%
Deshaun WatsonQBCLE vs CAR1870.75163.314.9%
Cam WardQBTEN at NYG1850.97234.117.2%
Baker MayfieldQBTB vs MIN1840.65243.613.1%
Michael Penix Jr.QBATL at GB1820.9282.814.3%
Geno SmithQBNYJ at DET1761.0472.712.5%
Jayden DanielsQBWAS vs SEA1550.83306.012.1%

32 players shown, ordered by Pass yds. A player appears in a market only when he is projected for it, so a quarterback is absent from receptions rather than listed at zero.

These describe what the model expects, not what anyone should do about it. Where a fair price is shown it is what the probability translates to, placed so it can be compared against what a market is offering.