Week 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Thu Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET (Thu Oct 8, 7:15 PM local)
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
Line movement
Spread
Total
History begins Mon 12:05 PM ET. Books are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics; a new book joins automatically when one appears in the feed.
Environment
Issued 54 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Capacity 80000 standard, expandable to ~105000. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Arlington city elevation (604 ft).
The projection
 Touchdown Theory | Difference | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAL -2.5 | DAL -8 | 5.5 toward TB |
| Total | 52 | 47.5 | 4.5 higher |
| Moneyline | TB +133DAL -133 | TB +340DAL -450 | |
| Win chance | DAL 57% | DAL 78% | DAL -21% |
DraftKings DAL -8.5, O/U 47.5 · FanDuel DAL -8.5, O/U 47.5
Odds updated 1 hr ago.
- DraftKings · first recorded Oct 5: DAL -9.5, 47.5 → DAL -8.5, 47.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- FanDuel · first recorded Oct 5: DAL -9.5, 47.5 → DAL -8.5, 47.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- BetMGM · first recorded Oct 5: DAL -9.5, 47.5 → DAL -8.5, 47.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- Caesars · first recorded Oct 5: DAL -9.5, 47.5 → DAL -8, 47.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- Fanatics · first recorded Oct 5: DAL -9.5, 47.5 → DAL -8, 47.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
How the number is built
Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 35.2 | 35.2 |
| Pass yards | 259.1 | 259.1 |
| Receiving yards | 259.1 | 259.1 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.84 | 1.84 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.84 | 1.84 |
| Carries | 25.2 | 25.2 |
| Rush yards | 99.4 | 99.4 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | 259.1 | 7.4 | 100% | ||
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 0.3 | 85.2 | 7.7 | 33% | |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 58.6 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 6% | |
| George Pickens | WR | 0.0 | 66.2 | 6.7 | 26% | |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | 0.1 | 35.7 | 4.5 | 14% | |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 0.0 | 26.0 | 3.9 | 10% | |
| Emari Demercado | RB | 19.1 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1% | |
| Tyler Goodson | RB | 10.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1% | |
| KaVontae Turpin | WR | 2.6 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 3% | |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0.0 | 9.6 | 1.0 | 4% | |
| Luke Schoonmaker | TE | 5.2 | 0.6 | 2% | ||
| Jonathan Mingo | WR | 3.7 | 0.4 | 1% | ||
| Sam Howell | QB | 1.1 |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 31.4 | 31.4 |
| Pass yards | 222.8 | 222.8 |
| Receiving yards | 222.8 | 222.8 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Carries | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| Rush yards | 137.0 | 137.0 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels | QB | 222.8 | 8.1 | 100% | ||
| Bucky Irving | RB | 95.1 | 25.4 | 3.6 | 11% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 56.1 | 7.0 | 25% | ||
| Ted Hurst III | WR | 0.1 | 38.4 | 3.8 | 17% | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 3.6 | 33.5 | 3.8 | 15% | |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | 24.4 | 12.4 | 2.5 | 6% | |
| Cade Otton | TE | 0.0 | 34.1 | 4.3 | 15% | |
| Tez Johnson | WR | 20.1 | 2.1 | 9% | ||
| Sean Tucker | RB | 5.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0% | |
| Kameron Johnson | WR | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1% | |
| Payne Durham | TE | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0% | |
| Ko Kieft | TE | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0% |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
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Injury report
The week 5 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 4 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
No row in week 5 report yet.
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