Week 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Sun Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET (Sun Nov 8, 7:20 PM local)
The projection
SNFSun Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
 Touchdown Theory | Market consensus | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CHI -4 | CHI -6.5 | 2.5 toward TB |
| Total | 44 | 46.5 | 2.5 lower |
| Moneyline | TB +160CHI -160 | TB +223CHI -274 | |
| Win chance | CHI 61% | CHI 70% | CHI -9% |
| Market | TB | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TB -6.5Best available line: FanDuel | CHI +6Best available line: DraftKings |
| Total | Over 46.5Best available line: DraftKings | Under 46.5Best available line: FanDuel |
| Moneyline | TB +225Best available line: DraftKings | CHI -270Best available line: FanDuel |
Odds updated 49 min ago.
Updating
Line movement
- DraftKingsFri 9:18 AM: CHI -6 / 47.5 → Sun 6:00 PM: CHI -6 / 46.5 → Sun 9:30 PM: CHI -6 / 47.5 → Sun 10:30 PM: CHI -6 / 46.5 → Mon 5:00 AM: CHI -5.5 / 47.5 → Mon 6:00 PM: CHI -4.5 / 47.5 → Tue 5:00 AM: CHI -4.5 / 46.5 → Tue 7:00 AM: CHI -6 / 46.5
- FanDuelFri 9:18 AM: CHI -6.5 / 48.5 → Sun 6:30 PM: CHI -6.5 / 47.5 → Mon 5:00 AM: CHI -5.5 / 46.5 → Tue 5:00 AM: CHI -6.5 / 46.5
- CaesarsFri 9:18 AM: CHI -6 / 47.5 → Fri 10:30 AM: CHI -6 / 48.5 → Sun 6:30 PM: CHI -6 / 46.5 → Sun 7:00 PM: CHI -6 / 47 → Mon 5:00 AM: CHI -5.5 / 47
Market numbers are recorded as the feed saw them, shown for comparison, not as a recommendation.
How the number is built
Updating
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
CHI24.0
24.0Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=24.0
TB20.1
20.1Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=20.1
Total44.0
44.0
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
Chicago Bearsprojected 38.2 pass plays, 24.7 run plays
Updating
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Pass yards | 235.9 | 235.9 |
| Receiving yards | 235.9 | 235.9 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.24 | 1.24 |
Environment
Venue
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Roof
open
Elevation
578 ft
Surface
grass
Temperature
49F
Wind
10 mph W
Chance of precipitation
16%
Humidity
76%
Forecast
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Issued 134 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Major reconstruction 2002-2003 (reopened 2003). Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Chicago lakeshore elevation (578 ft per WP; field is on the lakeshore).
Injury report
The week 9 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 8 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers10 listed
A'Shawn RobinsonDTNot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Antoine Winfield Jr.SRibFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Baker MayfieldQBThumbFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Bucky IrvingRBNot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
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