Week 9
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Thu Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET (Thu Nov 5, 8:15 PM local)
The projection
TNFThu Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
 Touchdown Theory | Market | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX -3.5 | JAX -10 | 6.5 toward BAL |
| Total | 46 | 40.5 | 5.5 higher |
| Moneyline | JAX -155BAL +155 | JAX -535BAL +400 | |
| Win chance | BAL 39% | BAL 19% | BAL +20% |
| Market | JAX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | JAX +9.5Best available line: FanDuel | BAL -10Best available line: DraftKings |
| Total | Over 40.5Best available line: DraftKings | Under 40.5Best available line: DraftKings |
| Moneyline | JAX -535Best available line: DraftKings | BAL +420Best available line: FanDuel |
Odds updated 5 min ago.
Updating
Line movement
- DraftKingsFri 9:18 AM: BAL -3 / 48.5 → Sun 6:00 PM: JAX -7 / 43.5 → Sun 6:30 PM: JAX -7.5 / 43.5 → Sun 8:30 PM: JAX -8.5 / 43.5 → Mon 3:30 PM: JAX -8.5 / 42.5 → Mon 7:00 PM: JAX -10 / 42.5 → Mon 9:30 PM: JAX -8.5 / 42.5 → Tue 9:00 AM: JAX -9.5 / 42.5 → Tue 1:00 PM: JAX -9.5 / 41.5 → Tue 3:00 PM: JAX -10 / 40.5
Market numbers are recorded as the feed saw them, shown for comparison, not as a recommendation.
How the number is built
Updating
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
BAL21.2
21.2Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=21.2
JAX24.7
24.7Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=24.7
Total45.8
45.8
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
Baltimore Ravensprojected 36.8 pass plays, 23.9 run plays
Updating
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | 32.1 | 32.1 |
| Pass yards | 225.0 | 225.0 |
| Receiving yards | 225.0 | 225.0 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.14 | 1.14 |
Environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Roof
open
Elevation
33 ft
Surface
grass
Temperature
68F
Wind
3 mph S
Chance of precipitation
41%
Humidity
90%
Forecast
Chance Light Rain
Issued 61 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Stadium WP did not list elevation; Baltimore city page gives a range from sea level (harbor) to 480 ft. Used 33 ft as harbor-adjacent approximation (stadium is near the harbor).
Injury report
The week 9 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 8 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
Jacksonville Jaguars9 listed
Antonio JohnsonSOut (week 8 report)AnkleDid Not Participate In Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Brenton StrangeTEEyeFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Jahlani TavaiLBHamstringLimited Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Jakobi MeyersWRQuestionable (week 8 report)
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