Week 9
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Sun Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET (Sun Nov 8, 4:25 PM local)
The projection
Sun Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
 Touchdown Theory | Market | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NE -4 | NE -3 | 1 toward NE |
| Total | 46.5 | 46.5 | Same |
| Moneyline | GB +164NE -164 | GB +134NE -158 | |
| Win chance | NE 62% | NE 59% | NE +3% |
| Market | GB | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | GB -3Best available line: DraftKings | NE +3Best available line: FanDuel |
| Total | Over 46.5Best available line: FanDuel | Under 46.5Best available line: DraftKings |
| Moneyline | GB +142Best available line: DraftKings | NE -158Best available line: FanDuel |
Odds updated 1 hr ago.
Updating
Line movement
- FanDuelFri 6:00 PM: NE -2.5 / 47.5 → Mon 5:30 PM: NE -2.5 / 46.5 → Tue 3:00 PM: NE -3 / 46.5
Market numbers are recorded as the feed saw them, shown for comparison, not as a recommendation.
How the number is built
Updating
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
NE25.4
25.4Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=25.4
GB21.3
21.3Before environment+(+0.0)Environment=21.3
Total46.7
46.7
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
New England Patriotsprojected 37.9 pass plays, 23.9 run plays
Updating
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | 32.5 | 32.5 |
| Pass yards | 229.8 | 229.8 |
| Receiving yards | 229.8 | 229.8 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.60 |
Environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Roof
open
Elevation
285 ft
Surface
fieldturf
Temperature
58F
Wind
5 mph W
Chance of precipitation
12%
Humidity
62%
Forecast
Mostly Sunny
Issued 127 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Capacity 64628 (2023+ per WP). Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Foxborough city elevation (285 ft).
Injury report
The week 9 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 8 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
Green Bay Packers9 listed
Aaron BanksGKnee, ToeFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Anthony CampbellDTQuestionable (week 8 report)AnkleLimited Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Benjamin St-JusteCBHamstringFull Participation in Practice
No row in week 9 report yet.
Brenton Cox Jr.LBQuestionable (week 8 report)
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