Week 8
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET (Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM local)
The projection
Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
 Touchdown Theory | Market | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TB -2.5 | TB -2.5 | Same |
| Total | 39 | 43.5 | 4.5 lower |
| Moneyline | ATL +138TB -138 | ATL +114TB -135 | |
| Win chance | TB 58% | TB 55% | TB +3% |
| Market | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | ATL -2.5Best available line: Caesars | TB +2.5Best available line: DraftKings |
| Total | Over 43.5Best available line: DraftKings | Under 43.5Best available line: FanDuel |
| Moneyline | ATL +118Best available line: Caesars | TB -126Best available line: FanDuel |
Odds updated 20 min ago.
Line movement
- DraftKingsTue 4:02 PM: TB -1.5 / 44.5 → Mon 5:28 PM: TB -2.5 / 46.5 → Fri 9:18 AM: TB -2.5 / 44.5 → Fri 11:28 AM: TB -2.5 / 43.5
Market numbers are recorded as the feed saw them, shown for comparison, not as a recommendation.
How the number is built
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
TB20.8
22.0Before environment+(-1.2)Environment=20.8
ATL18.1
19.3Before environment+(-1.2)Environment=18.1
Total38.9
41.3Before environment
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
Tampa Bay Buccaneersprojected 37.3 pass plays, 25.5 run plays
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| Pass yards | 177.5 | 177.5 |
| Receiving yards | 177.5 | 177.5 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| Carries |
Environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Roof
open
Elevation
10 ft
Surface
grass
Temperature
80F
Wind
12 mph E
Chance of precipitation
78%
Humidity
73%
Forecast
Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms
Issued 60 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Capacity 69218 (2022+ per WP). Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Tampa city elevation (10 ft).
Injury report
Atlanta Falcons16 listed
A.J. TerrellCBGroinLimited Participation in Practice
Avieon TerrellCBIllnessLimited Participation in Practice
Beaux CollinsWRHipFull Participation in Practice
Billy Bowman Jr.CBHamstringLimited Participation in Practice
Brian RobinsonRBHamstringDid Not Participate In Practice
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