Week 5
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET (Sun Oct 11, 1:00 PM local)
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
Line movement
Spread
Total
History begins Mon 12:05 PM ET. Books are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics; a new book joins automatically when one appears in the feed.
Environment
Issued 118 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Capacity 64767 (reduced from 75000 per WP). Open-air canopy (2016) covers seating but leaves field exposed. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Miami Gardens city elevation (10 ft).
The projection
 Touchdown Theory | Difference | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CIN -1.5 | CIN -7.5 | 6 toward MIA |
| Total | 47.5 | 42.5 | 5 higher |
| Moneyline | CIN -117MIA +117 | CIN -375MIA +300 | |
| Win chance | MIA 46% | MIA 24% | MIA +22% |
DraftKings CIN -7, O/U 42.5 · FanDuel CIN -7.5, O/U 42.5
Odds updated 1 hr ago.
- DraftKings · first recorded Oct 5: CIN -7, 41.5 → CIN -7, 42.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- FanDuel · first recorded Oct 5: CIN -7.5, 42.5 (held, updated 1 hr ago)
- BetMGM · first recorded Oct 5: CIN -7.5, 42.5 (held, updated 1 hr ago)
- Caesars · first recorded Oct 5: CIN -7, 42.5 (held, updated 1 hr ago)
- Fanatics · first recorded Oct 5: CIN -7.5, 42.5 → CIN -7, 42.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
How the number is built
Inputs updating
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
Wind and cold are recorded as an effect on passing efficiency, not as points, and the conversion between the two is not published, so they are shown in their own units rather than added into the chain above. Indoors and elevation are recorded in points.
Two earlier links, per-play efficiency and the matchup adjustment, are computed and discarded rather than stored, so they cannot be shown yet.
live-20261006T183203Z, generated Tue Oct 6, 2:32 PM ET
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 32.3 | 32.3 |
| Pass yards | 222.3 | 222.3 |
| Receiving yards | 222.3 | 222.3 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Carries | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| Rush yards | 143.0 | 143.0 |
| Rush touchdowns | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | QB | 222.3 | 32.3 | 100% | ||
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 73.0 | 10.0 | 33% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 63.5 | 11.4 | 2.4 | 5% | |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | 59.2 | 5.4 | 27% | ||
| Jaylen Wright | RB | 33.4 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 3% | |
| Chris Bell | WR | 0.1 | 38.0 | 3.9 | 17% | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | 0.1 | 12.6 | 2.5 | 6% | |
| Seydou Traore | TE | 0.1 | 11.3 | 1.5 | 5% | |
| Will Kacmarek | TE | 0.1 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 3% | |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | 3.9 | 0.6 | 2% | ||
| Brady Cook | QB | 2.5 | ||||
| Kyle McCord | QB | 2.5 |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 35.6 | 35.6 |
| Pass yards | 258.0 | 258.0 |
| Receiving yards | 258.0 | 258.0 |
| Pass touchdowns | 2.12 | 2.12 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 2.12 | 2.12 |
| Carries | 24.7 | 24.7 |
| Rush yards | 102.2 | 102.2 |
| Rush touchdowns | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | QB | 258.0 | 5.5 | 100% | ||
| Chase Brown | RB | 65.6 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 7% | |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 0.0 | 76.1 | 6.8 | 30% | |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 0.3 | 70.9 | 8.5 | 27% | |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 0.0 | 38.2 | 3.8 | 15% | |
| Samaje Perine | RB | 14.3 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 5% | |
| Dohnte Meyers | WR | 2.8 | 19.0 | 2.2 | 7% | |
| Gary Brightwell | RB | 11.4 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 2% | |
| Drew Sample | TE | 0.1 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 3% | |
| Erick All Jr. | TE | 0.0 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 2% | |
| Mitchell Tinsley | WR | 2.6 | 0.5 | 1% | ||
| Tahj Brooks | RB | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0% | |
| Joe Flacco | QB | 0.5 |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
live-20261006T183203Z
Injury report
The week 5 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 4 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
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