Week 5
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Mon Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
Line movement
Spread
Total
History begins Mon 12:05 PM ET. Books are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics; a new book joins automatically when one appears in the feed.
Environment
No forecast has been recorded for this game.
Translucent fixed ETFE roof (some panels open for ventilation but roof itself does NOT retract — classified fixed_dome and is_retractable FALSE). Field vulnerable to lightning delays per WP. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Inglewood city elevation (130 ft).
The projection
 Touchdown Theory | Difference | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LA -4.5 | LA -3 | 1.5 toward LA |
| Total | 51.5 | 54.5 | 3 lower |
| Moneyline | BUF +168LA -168 | BUF +130LA -154 | |
| Win chance | LA 63% | LA 58% | LA +5% |
DraftKings LA -2.5, O/U 54.5 · FanDuel LA -2.5, O/U 54.5
Odds updated 1 hr ago.
- DraftKings · first recorded Oct 5: LA -2.5, 53.5 → LA -2.5, 54.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- FanDuel · first recorded Oct 5: LA -2.5, 53.5 → LA -2.5, 54.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- BetMGM · first recorded Oct 5: LA -2.5, 53.5 → LA -3, 54.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- Caesars · first recorded Oct 5: LA -3, 54.5 (held, updated 1 hr ago)
How the number is built
Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Pass yards | 239.0 | 239.0 |
| Receiving yards | 239.0 | 239.0 |
| Pass touchdowns | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| Carries | 25.6 | 25.6 |
| Rush yards | 136.3 | 136.3 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 239.0 | 2.3 | 100% | ||
| Kyren Williams | RB | 65.9 | 18.1 | 2.7 | 8% | |
| Puka Nacua | WR | 7.1 | 72.6 | 7.6 | 30% | |
| Davante Adams | WR | 0.1 | 59.9 | 7.3 | 25% | |
| Blake Corum | RB | 40.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 2% | |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | 0.0 | 23.2 | 2.9 | 10% | |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | 0.1 | 19.1 | 2.9 | 8% | |
| Dean Connors | RB | 14.4 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2% | |
| Tutu Atwell | WR | 13.6 | 1.1 | 6% | ||
| Konata Mumpfield | WR | 10.2 | 2.1 | 4% | ||
| Davis Allen | TE | 9.0 | 1.3 | 4% | ||
| Jordan Whittington | WR | 0.3 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 2% | |
| Stetson Bennett IV | QB | 3.4 | ||||
| Ty Simpson | QB | 1.9 |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 33.8 | 33.8 |
| Pass yards | 224.1 | 224.1 |
| Receiving yards | 224.1 | 224.1 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.74 | 1.74 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.74 | 1.74 |
| Carries | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| Rush yards | 130.6 | 130.6 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 224.1 | 25.8 | 100% | ||
| James Cook III | RB | 92.9 | 10.7 | 2.6 | 5% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 0.0 | 60.8 | 5.6 | 27% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 0.8 | 48.3 | 6.6 | 22% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 0.1 | 29.1 | 5.2 | 13% | |
| Ty Johnson | RB | 7.5 | 17.6 | 2.6 | 8% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 24.7 | 3.2 | 11% | ||
| Joshua Palmer | WR | 17.9 | 1.7 | 8% | ||
| Dawson Knox | TE | 0.1 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 5% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0% | |
| Jackson Hawes | TE | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1% | ||
| Greg Dortch | WR | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1% | |
| Kyle Allen | QB |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
live-20261006T183203Z
Injury report
The week 5 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 4 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
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