Week 5
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET (Sun Oct 11, 8:20 PM local)
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
Line movement
Spread
Total
History begins Mon 12:05 PM ET. Books are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics; a new book joins automatically when one appears in the feed.
Environment
Issued 126 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Eight-petal retractable roof. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Atlanta city elevation (1050 ft).
The projection
 Touchdown Theory | Difference | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | PK | ATL -3.5 | 3.5 toward BAL |
| Total | 47.5 | 43.5 | 4 higher |
| Moneyline | BAL +103ATL -103 | BAL +148ATL -176 | |
| Win chance | ATL 51% | ATL 61% | ATL -10% |
DraftKings ATL -3.5, O/U 43.5 · FanDuel ATL -3, O/U 43.5
Odds updated 1 hr ago.
- DraftKings · first recorded Oct 5: BAL -3.5, 46.5 → ATL -3.5, 43.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- FanDuel · first recorded Oct 5: BAL -3.5, 45.5 → ATL -3, 43.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- BetMGM · first recorded Oct 5: BAL -3.5, 45.5 → ATL -3.5, 43.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- Caesars · first recorded Oct 5: BAL -3, 45 → ATL -3.5, 43.5 (updated 1 hr ago)
- Fanatics · first recorded Oct 6: BAL -2.5, 45.5 → ATL -3.5, 44 (updated 1 hr ago)
How the number is built
Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 34.3 | 34.3 |
| Pass yards | 225.5 | 225.5 |
| Receiving yards | 225.5 | 225.5 |
| Pass touchdowns | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Carries | 27.1 | 27.1 |
| Rush yards | 130.5 | 130.5 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 225.5 | 2.3 | 100% | ||
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 86.2 | 46.8 | 6.0 | 21% | |
| Drake London | WR | 1.2 | 83.3 | 8.6 | 37% | |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | 32.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1% | |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | 0.0 | 24.6 | 3.8 | 11% | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | 0.2 | 21.0 | 3.3 | 9% | |
| Austin Hooper | TE | 16.2 | 2.0 | 7% | ||
| Zachariah Branch | WR | 0.1 | 12.0 | 1.7 | 5% | |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0.1 | 10.5 | 2.3 | 5% | |
| Chris Blair | WR | 6.2 | 1.3 | 3% | ||
| Jack Strand | QB | 4.8 | ||||
| Charlie Woerner | TE | 0.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1% | |
| Cooper Rush | QB | 1.7 | ||||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0.7 |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 31.5 | 31.5 |
| Pass yards | 230.9 | 230.9 |
| Receiving yards | 230.9 | 230.9 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.55 | 1.55 |
| Carries | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| Rush yards | 125.0 | 125.0 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 230.9 | 20.7 | 100% | ||
| Derrick Henry | RB | 72.9 | 15.3 | 2.1 | 7% | |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 5.2 | 80.7 | 6.8 | 35% | |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 1.9 | 36.6 | 6.2 | 16% | |
| Justice Hill | RB | 14.8 | 9.4 | 1.4 | 4% | |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | 0.0 | 23.4 | 3.9 | 10% | |
| Chris Moore | WR | 0.1 | 20.8 | 2.2 | 9% | |
| Devontez Walker | WR | 19.6 | 1.2 | 9% | ||
| Rasheen Ali | RB | 5.9 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 3% | |
| Matthew Hibner | TE | 0.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 4% | |
| LaJohntay Wester | WR | 7.7 | 1.0 | 3% | ||
| Durham Smythe | TE | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1% | |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | 1.7 | ||||
| Joe Fagnano | QB | 1.7 |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
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Injury report
The week 5 report has not been filed yet. The statuses below are from the week 4 report; the league typically files Wednesday afternoon ET.
No row in week 5 report yet.
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No row in week 5 report yet.
No row in week 5 report yet.
No row in week 5 report yet.
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