Week 4
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Sun Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
How the line moved
| Recorded | Line | Total | NE | BUF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ET | BUF -3 | 49.5 | +140 | -166 | |
| Wed Sep 9, 5:19 PM ET | BUF -3 | 49.5 | +136 | -162 | |
| Fri Sep 11, 3:11 PM ET | not posted | ||||
| Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ET | not posted | ||||
| Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ET | BUF -5.5 | 49.5 | +205 | -250 | |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -5.5 | 49.5 | +205 | -250 | |
| Tue Sep 29, 10:00 AM ET | BUF -7 | 48.5 | +240 | -298 | |
| Wed Sep 30, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -6.5 | 48.5 | +235 | -290 | |
| Thu Oct 1, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -6.5 | 48.5 | +235 | -290 | current |
Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.
Environment
Issued 75 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
The projection
How the number is built
Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 32.9 | 32.9 |
| Pass yards | 220.9 | 220.9 |
| Receiving yards | 220.9 | 220.9 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| Carries | 27.7 | 27.7 |
| Rush yards | 141.8 | 141.8 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.54 | 1.54 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 220.9 | 35.9 | 100% | ||
| James Cook III | RB | 91.3 | 12.2 | 2.5 | 6% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 0.0 | 58.2 | 5.4 | 26% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 1.4 | 46.6 | 6.3 | 21% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 0.1 | 30.1 | 4.9 | 14% | |
| Ty Johnson | RB | 9.1 | 19.2 | 2.9 | 9% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 22.6 | 3.1 | 10% | ||
| Joshua Palmer | WR | 16.2 | 1.6 | 7% | ||
| Dawson Knox | TE | 0.2 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 5% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0% | |
| Jackson Hawes | TE | 2.9 | 0.4 | 1% | ||
| Greg Dortch | WR | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1% |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 31.7 | 31.7 |
| Pass yards | 216.8 | 216.8 |
| Receiving yards | 216.8 | 216.8 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Carries | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| Rush yards | 133.9 | 133.9 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | QB | 216.8 | 23.9 | 100% | ||
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 45.3 | 25.9 | 3.8 | 12% | |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 47.1 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 2% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 0.3 | 39.8 | 4.8 | 18% | |
| Mack Hollins | WR | 0.1 | 38.1 | 4.8 | 18% | |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | 0.8 | 33.6 | 4.4 | 15% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 0.0 | 29.8 | 4.3 | 14% | |
| Efton Chism III | WR | 21.8 | 1.3 | 10% | ||
| Corey Kiner | RB | 16.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1% | |
| Kyle Williams | WR | 0.1 | 12.2 | 1.7 | 6% | |
| Eli Raridon | TE | 0.0 | 8.6 | 1.4 | 4% | |
| Cameron Latu | TE | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0% |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
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