Week 4
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Sun Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
How the line moved
| Recorded | Line | Total | IND | WAS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ET | WAS -1.5 | 50.5 | -102 | -118 | |
| Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ET | not posted | ||||
| Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ET | IND -4.5 | 46.5 | -205 | +170 | |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ET | IND -4.5 | 46.5 | -205 | +170 | |
| Tue Sep 29, 10:00 AM ET | IND -3.5 | 47.5 | -180 | +150 | |
| Wed Sep 30, 7:00 AM ET | IND -3.5 | 47.5 | -185 | +154 | |
| Wed Sep 30, 12:00 PM ET | IND -3.5 | 47.5 | -180 | +150 | |
| Thu Oct 1, 7:00 AM ET | IND -3.5 | 47.5 | -192 | +160 | current |
Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.
Environment
No forecast for this game. The National Weather Service covers the United States only, and this game is played outside it.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Fixed roof; the GRASS PITCH retracts to expose permanent NFL artificial turf underneath. Playing field exposed to weather (open ends) — classified open for environment-model purposes. Stadium WP did not list site elevation; using London city elevation (82 ft).
The projection
How the number is built
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
Wind and cold are recorded as an effect on passing efficiency, not as points, and the conversion between the two is not published, so they are shown in their own units rather than added into the chain above. Indoors and elevation are recorded in points.
Two earlier links, per-play efficiency and the matchup adjustment, are computed and discarded rather than stored, so they cannot be shown yet.
live-20261002T023447Z, generated Thu Oct 1, 10:35 PM ET
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| Pass yards | 212.3 | 212.3 |
| Receiving yards | 212.3 | 212.3 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Carries | 27.1 | 27.1 |
| Rush yards | 124.6 | 124.6 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 212.3 | 32.1 | 100% | ||
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 0.6 | 60.4 | 6.4 | 28% | |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 0.5 | 51.4 | 5.8 | 24% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 46.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 2% | |
| Rachaad White | RB | 22.7 | 11.7 | 2.3 | 6% | |
| Antonio Williams | WR | 1.0 | 23.0 | 2.8 | 11% | |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0.0 | 22.5 | 3.1 | 11% | |
| Dyami Brown | WR | 2.5 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 5% | |
| Kaytron Allen | RB | 11.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1% | |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 6.9 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 2% | |
| John Bates | TE | 8.2 | 1.3 | 4% | ||
| Treylon Burks | WR | 7.6 | 1.3 | 4% | ||
| Ben Sinnott | TE | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 2% |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 33.9 | 33.9 |
| Pass yards | 262.5 | 262.5 |
| Receiving yards | 262.5 | 262.5 |
| Pass touchdowns | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Carries | 27.6 | 27.6 |
| Rush yards | 133.0 | 133.0 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.52 | 1.52 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | QB | 262.5 | 12.0 | 100% | ||
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 99.5 | 30.2 | 3.5 | 11% | |
| Josh Downs | WR | 70.0 | 7.7 | 27% | ||
| Tyler Warren | TE | 0.8 | 58.0 | 6.6 | 22% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 0.2 | 47.1 | 6.1 | 18% | |
| Darius Slayton | WR | 18.5 | 1.7 | 7% | ||
| Laquon Treadwell | WR | 17.0 | 1.4 | 6% | ||
| Seth McGowan | RB | 10.0 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 1% | |
| Ashton Dulin | WR | 3.3 | 10.2 | 0.8 | 4% | |
| DJ Giddens | RB | 7.3 | 0.3 | |||
| Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 2% | |
| Drew Ogletree | TE | 2.9 | 0.6 | 1% |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
live-20261002T023447Z