Touchdown Theory

Week 4

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET

The market

Line
NO -2.5
Total
47.5
Moneyline
ATL +124 NO -148

These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.

How the line moved

RecordedLineTotalATLNO
Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ETNO -2.545.5+114-135
Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ETnot posted
Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ETNO -3.545.5+154-185
Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ETNO -3.545.5+154-185
Fri Sep 25, 7:00 AM ETNO -3.545.5+154-184
Sat Sep 26, 7:00 AM ETNO -3.545.5+146-174
Tue Sep 29, 10:00 AM ETNO -348.5+130-155
Wed Sep 30, 7:00 AM ETNO -348.5+124-148
Thu Oct 1, 7:00 AM ETNO -2.547.5+124-148current

Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.

Environment

Venue
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Roof
fixed roof
Elevation
3 ft
Surface
sportturf

No forecast has been recorded for this game.

current_name reflects most-recent name in our schedules data; real-world current name (per WP) is Caesars Superdome. Stadium WP did not list elevation; New Orleans city elevation ranges -6.6 to 19.7 ft. Used 3 ft as representative value for the dome's location.

The projection

ATL at NONO 56% to win
Mon Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Market line
NO -2.5
Market total
47.5
Projected spread
NO -2
Projected total
43.5
Early board — some inputs still catching up
Market oddsATL +124 NO -148
Fair oddsATL +125 NO -125

How the number is built

Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.

Where the player numbers come from

The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.

New Orleans Saintsprojected 38.0 pass plays, 24.4 run plays
Early board — some inputs still catching up
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts34.934.9
Pass yards209.2209.2
Receiving yards209.2209.2
Pass touchdowns1.231.23
Receiving touchdowns1.231.23
Carries25.625.6
Rush yards96.596.5
Rush touchdowns0.260.26
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Tyler ShoughQB209.216.2100%
Chris OlaveWR68.99.233%
Travis Etienne Jr.RB36.214.82.77%
Juwan JohnsonTE0.037.84.418%
Devaughn VeleWR0.034.75.017%
Alvin KamaraRB21.612.22.96%
Kendre MillerRB16.64.40.92%
Noah FantTE0.014.12.27%
Bryce LanceWR0.013.62.07%
CJ DonaldsonRB4.91.50.51%
Barion BrownWR1.03.60.52%
Oscar DelpTE0.03.60.62%
Atlanta Falconsprojected 35.7 pass plays, 26.5 run plays
Early board — some inputs still catching up
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts33.333.3
Pass yards198.9198.9
Receiving yards198.9198.9
Pass touchdowns1.061.06
Receiving touchdowns1.061.06
Carries26.526.5
Rush yards125.2125.2
Rush touchdowns0.880.88
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Michael Penix Jr.QB198.96.8100%
Bijan RobinsonRB84.242.15.921%
Drake LondonWR1.868.88.335%
Brian Robinson Jr.RB31.82.40.81%
Jahan DotsonWR0.022.33.711%
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE0.220.23.310%
Austin HooperTE14.72.07%
Zachariah BranchWR0.110.71.65%
Olamide ZaccheausWR0.19.42.25%
Chris BlairWR6.51.23%
Charlie WoernerTE0.11.80.51%

Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.

live-20261002T023447Z

Injury report

No players from either team appear on this week's report.