Week 3
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
How the line moved
| Recorded | Line | Total | NYJ | DET | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ET | DET -9.5 | 45.5 | +320 | -410 | |
| Fri Sep 11, 3:11 PM ET | DET -9.5 | 45.5 | +330 | -425 | |
| Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ET | not posted | ||||
| Wed Sep 16, 7:00 AM ET | DET -7 | 48.5 | +270 | -340 | |
| Fri Sep 18, 7:00 AM ET | DET -7.5 | 48.5 | +300 | -375 | |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:00 AM ET | DET -7.5 | 48.5 | +300 | -375 | |
| Tue Sep 22, 10:00 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 48.5 | +245 | -305 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 47.5 | +245 | -305 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 12:20 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 47.5 | +240 | -298 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 7:00 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 47.5 | +245 | -305 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 12:00 PM ET | DET -6.5 | 47.5 | +245 | -305 | |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 47.5 | +245 | -305 | |
| Fri Sep 25, 7:00 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 47.5 | +240 | -298 | |
| Fri Sep 25, 12:00 PM ET | DET -6.5 | 48.5 | +235 | -290 | |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:00 AM ET | DET -6.5 | 48.5 | +245 | -305 | |
| Sun Sep 27, 12:00 PM ET | DET -6.5 | 48.5 | +245 | -305 | current |
Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.
Environment
No forecast has been recorded for this game.
Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Detroit city elevation (597 ft).
The projection
Not published yet. When it is, this section carries the projected score, spread, total and win probability for this game, the fair odds the probability translates to, and the projected play counts and per-team box lines behind them.
How the number is built
Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| Pass yards | 245.8 | 245.8 |
| Receiving yards | 245.8 | 245.8 |
| Pass touchdowns | 2.64 | 2.64 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 2.64 | 2.64 |
| Carries | 25.9 | 25.9 |
| Rush yards | 123.1 | 123.1 |
| Rush touchdowns | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | QB | 245.8 | 3.3 | 100% | ||
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 96.0 | 26.5 | 4.3 | 11% | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 1.8 | 76.1 | 10.1 | 31% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 0.0 | 58.6 | 6.4 | 24% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 1.9 | 55.0 | 5.7 | 22% | |
| Sione Vaki | RB | 11.0 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 2% | |
| Jacob Saylors | RB | 8.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 1% | |
| Brock Wright | TE | 0.0 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 3% | |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 0.1 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 2% | |
| Tom Kennedy | WR | 0.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 2% | |
| Tay Martin | WR | 0.1 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 2% | |
| Tyler Conklin | TE | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1% | |
| Dominic Lovett | WR | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0% |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| Pass yards | 175.7 | 175.7 |
| Receiving yards | 175.7 | 175.7 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Carries | 26.2 | 26.2 |
| Rush yards | 121.9 | 121.9 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | QB | 175.7 | 7.3 | 100% | ||
| Breece Hall | RB | 68.0 | 20.1 | 2.8 | 11% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 0.3 | 65.2 | 9.8 | 37% | |
| Braelon Allen | RB | 25.3 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 4% | |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | 27.9 | 4.0 | 16% | ||
| Mason Taylor | TE | 0.0 | 18.4 | 3.9 | 10% | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | 0.5 | 16.0 | 2.6 | 9% | |
| Isaiah Davis | RB | 9.7 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 3% | |
| Isaiah Williams | WR | 2.0 | 8.3 | 1.6 | 5% | |
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | 8.2 | 0.4 | |||
| Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 5.6 | 1.0 | 3% | ||
| Arian Smith | WR | 0.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 2% |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
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