Touchdown Theory

Week 3

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Sun Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET

The market

Line
NO -3.5
Total
43.5
Moneyline
LV +164 NO -198

These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.

How the line moved

RecordedLineTotalLVNO
Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ETNO -3.542.5+154-185
Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ETnot posted
Wed Sep 16, 7:00 AM ETNO -345.5+136-162
Thu Sep 17, 7:00 AM ETNO -345.5+140-166
Fri Sep 18, 7:00 AM ETNO -345.5+136-162
Sat Sep 19, 7:00 AM ETNO -345.5+136-162
Tue Sep 22, 10:00 AM ETNO -343.5+145-175
Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ETNO -343.5+154-185
Wed Sep 23, 7:00 AM ETNO -344.5+160-192
Wed Sep 23, 12:00 PM ETNO -344.5+154-185
Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ETNO -343.5+154-185
Fri Sep 25, 7:00 AM ETNO -343.5+154-185
Sat Sep 26, 7:00 AM ETNO -343.5+154-185
Sun Sep 27, 7:00 AM ETNO -3.543.5+164-198current

Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.

Environment

Venue
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Roof
fixed roof
Elevation
3 ft
Surface
sportturf

No forecast has been recorded for this game.

current_name reflects most-recent name in our schedules data; real-world current name (per WP) is Caesars Superdome. Stadium WP did not list elevation; New Orleans city elevation ranges -6.6 to 19.7 ft. Used 3 ft as representative value for the dome's location.

The projection

Not published yet. When it is, this section carries the projected score, spread, total and win probability for this game, the fair odds the probability translates to, and the projected play counts and per-team box lines behind them.

How the number is built

Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.

Where the player numbers come from

The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.

New Orleans Saintsprojected 37.7 pass plays, 25.2 run plays
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts34.134.1
Pass yards210.2210.2
Receiving yards210.2210.2
Pass touchdowns0.730.73
Receiving touchdowns0.730.73
Carries26.826.8
Rush yards86.386.3
Rush touchdowns0.980.98
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Tyler ShoughQB210.28.2100%
Chris OlaveWR62.47.930%
Travis Etienne Jr.RB35.720.83.710%
Juwan JohnsonTE0.034.04.016%
Devaughn VeleWR0.028.03.913%
Alvin KamaraRB17.110.72.35%
Noah FantTE0.018.82.99%
Kendre MillerRB17.51.20.21%
Bryce LanceWR0.116.92.28%
CJ DonaldsonRB6.33.70.92%
Barion BrownWR1.45.20.72%
Oscar DelpTE0.05.30.93%
Kevin Austin Jr.WR3.20.52%
Las Vegas Raidersprojected 37.0 pass plays, 23.0 run plays
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts34.834.8
Pass yards188.2188.2
Receiving yards188.2188.2
Pass touchdowns1.621.62
Receiving touchdowns1.621.62
Carries23.123.1
Rush yards83.083.0
Rush touchdowns0.230.23
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Kirk CousinsQB188.20.4100%
Ashton JeantyRB41.820.04.511%
Brock BowersTE0.238.35.520%
Tre TuckerWR1.030.54.616%
Michael MayerTE0.030.95.416%
Jalen NailorWR0.325.73.614%
Mike Washington Jr.RB14.76.11.43%
Mike Washington Jr.RB16.33.00.72%
Jack BechWR16.62.59%
Malik BensonWR0.910.11.65%
Roman HembyRB6.92.70.61%
Dareke YoungWR1.90.11%
Ian ThomasTE1.70.21%
Dylan LaubeRB0.60.70.20%

Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.

live-20260923T042310Z

Injury report

Las Vegas Raiders10 listed
Aidan O'ConnellQBQuestionableNot injury related - personal matterDid Not Participate In Practice
Brock BowersTEQuestionableKneeDid Not Participate In Practice
Dareke YoungWRHamstringFull Participation in Practice
Darien PorterCBFootFull Participation in Practice
Foley FatukasiDTShoulderFull Participation in Practice
JJ PeguesDTBackFull Participation in Practice
Kwity PayeDEQuestionableIllnessLimited Participation in Practice
Nakobe DeanLBShoulderFull Participation in Practice
Segun OlubiLBKneeFull Participation in Practice
Treydan StukesSOutConcussionDid Not Participate In Practice
New Orleans Saints10 listed
Barion BrownWROutHamstringDid Not Participate In Practice
Chase YoungLBCalfFull Participation in Practice
Christen MillerDTOutToeDid Not Participate In Practice
Davon GodchauxDTNot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice
Isaiah StalbirdLBShoulderFull Participation in Practice
Jonas SankerSKneeFull Participation in Practice
Kendre MillerRBIllnessFull Participation in Practice
Martin EmersonCBQuestionableShoulderLimited Participation in Practice
Nathan ShepherdDTHipLimited Participation in Practice
Travis EtienneRBHamstringFull Participation in Practice