Week 3
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
How the line moved
| Recorded | Line | Total | LAC | BUF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ET | BUF -3 | 48.5 | +136 | -162 | |
| Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ET | not posted | ||||
| Wed Sep 16, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -4.5 | 49.5 | +180 | -218 | |
| Thu Sep 17, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -4.5 | 49.5 | +185 | -225 | |
| Fri Sep 18, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -4.5 | 50.5 | +188 | -225 | |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -4.5 | 50.5 | +188 | -225 | |
| Tue Sep 22, 10:00 AM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +270 | -340 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +275 | -345 | |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +275 | -345 | |
| Fri Sep 25, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +270 | -340 | |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +275 | -345 | |
| Sun Sep 27, 7:00 AM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +270 | -340 | |
| Sun Sep 27, 12:00 PM ET | BUF -7 | 50.5 | +270 | -340 | current |
Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.
Environment
Issued 3 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
The projection
Not published yet. When it is, this section carries the projected score, spread, total and win probability for this game, the fair odds the probability translates to, and the projected play counts and per-team box lines behind them.
How the number is built
Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| Pass yards | 237.4 | 237.4 |
| Receiving yards | 237.4 | 237.4 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Carries | 27.7 | 27.7 |
| Rush yards | 138.0 | 138.0 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 237.4 | 32.8 | 100% | ||
| James Cook III | RB | 73.3 | 19.4 | 3.0 | 8% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 0.0 | 62.3 | 5.2 | 26% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 2.1 | 55.9 | 6.8 | 24% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 0.2 | 35.3 | 5.0 | 15% | |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | 16.1 | 1.6 | 7% | ||
| Ray Davis | RB | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1% | |
| Ian Wheeler | RB | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1% | |
| Dawson Knox | TE | 0.0 | 12.4 | 1.5 | 5% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 12.2 | 1.8 | 5% | ||
| Skyler Bell | WR | 0.5 | 9.2 | 1.2 | 4% | |
| Ty Johnson | RB | 5.1 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 2% | |
| Frank Gore Jr. | RB | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0% | |
| Jackson Hawes | TE | 2.8 | 0.3 | 1% |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| Pass yards | 187.5 | 187.5 |
| Receiving yards | 187.5 | 187.5 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| Carries | 25.9 | 25.9 |
| Rush yards | 121.5 | 121.5 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB | 187.5 | 19.5 | 100% | ||
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 60.4 | 9.3 | 1.9 | 5% | |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 0.2 | 50.6 | 7.3 | 27% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 0.3 | 35.3 | 5.3 | 19% | |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | 25.3 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 2% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 0.1 | 27.5 | 3.0 | 15% | |
| Tre' Harris | WR | 0.2 | 25.3 | 4.2 | 14% | |
| David Njoku | TE | 20.9 | 3.6 | 11% | ||
| Jaret Patterson | RB | 8.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0% | |
| Kimani Vidal | RB | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1% | |
| Brenen Thompson | WR | 0.2 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 2% | |
| Charlie Kolar | TE | 0.0 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 2% | |
| Derius Davis | WR | 0.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1% |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
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