Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET (Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM local)
The market
These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.
How the line moved
| Recorded | Line | Total | KC | MIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ET | KC -7.5 | 44.5 | -425 | +330 | |
| Wed Sep 9, 5:19 PM ET | KC -7.5 | 44.5 | -440 | +340 | |
| Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ET | not posted | ||||
| Wed Sep 16, 7:00 AM ET | KC -8.5 | 44.5 | -455 | +350 | |
| Sat Sep 19, 7:00 AM ET | KC -8.5 | 44.5 | -455 | +350 | |
| Tue Sep 22, 10:00 AM ET | KC -11.5 | 46.5 | -850 | +575 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 12:11 AM ET | KC -11.5 | 46.5 | -900 | +600 | |
| Wed Sep 23, 12:00 PM ET | KC -11.5 | 46.5 | -900 | +600 | |
| Thu Sep 24, 7:00 AM ET | KC -10.5 | 46.5 | -650 | +470 | |
| Fri Sep 25, 7:00 AM ET | KC -10.5 | 45.5 | -650 | +470 | |
| Fri Sep 25, 12:00 PM ET | KC -10.5 | 45.5 | -575 | +425 | |
| Sat Sep 26, 7:00 AM ET | KC -10 | 45.5 | -650 | +470 | |
| Sat Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET | KC -10 | 45.5 | -625 | +455 | |
| Sun Sep 27, 7:00 AM ET | KC -10 | 45.5 | -575 | +425 | |
| Sun Sep 27, 12:00 PM ET | KC -10 | 45.5 | -600 | +440 | current |
Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.
Environment
Issued 4 hours before kickoff. A forecast issued further out has had less time to settle.
Capacity 64767 (reduced from 75000 per WP). Open-air canopy (2016) covers seating but leaves field exposed. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Miami Gardens city elevation (10 ft).
The projection
Not published yet. When it is, this section carries the projected score, spread, total and win probability for this game, the fair odds the probability translates to, and the projected play counts and per-team box lines behind them.
How the number is built
The model projects each side, then adjusts for the conditions the game is played in. Both steps are shown so the adjustment can be seen rather than taken on trust. These add up exactly as printed; if they ever did not, this section would not appear.
Wind and cold are recorded as an effect on passing efficiency, not as points, and the conversion between the two is not published, so they are shown in their own units rather than added into the chain above. Indoors and elevation are recorded in points.
Two earlier links, per-play efficiency and the matchup adjustment, are computed and discarded rather than stored, so they cannot be shown yet.
live-20260923T042310Z, generated Wed Sep 23, 12:23 AM ET
Where the player numbers come from
The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 32.9 | 32.9 |
| Pass yards | 198.9 | 198.9 |
| Receiving yards | 198.9 | 198.9 |
| Pass touchdowns | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Carries | 25.1 | 25.1 |
| Rush yards | 105.9 | 105.9 |
| Rush touchdowns | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | QB | 198.9 | 24.5 | 100% | ||
| De'Von Achane | RB | 64.8 | 26.4 | 4.6 | 13% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 4.2 | 40.1 | 7.3 | 20% | |
| Caleb Douglas | WR | 0.5 | 43.1 | 5.3 | 22% | |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | 36.7 | 3.7 | 18% | ||
| Chris Bell | WR | 0.2 | 15.1 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | 0.2 | 12.4 | 1.8 | 6% | |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 2% | |
| Will Kacmarek | TE | 0.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 4% | |
| Seydou Traore | TE | 0.0 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 4% | |
| Jalen Tolbert | WR | 5.4 | 0.9 | 3% | ||
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0% |
| Team line | Projected | Sum of players |
|---|---|---|
| Pass attempts | 33.6 | 33.6 |
| Pass yards | 238.6 | 238.6 |
| Receiving yards | 238.6 | 238.6 |
| Pass touchdowns | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Receiving touchdowns | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Carries | 26.7 | 26.7 |
| Rush yards | 136.3 | 136.3 |
| Rush touchdowns | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Player | Pos | Pass | Rush | Rec | Tgt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 238.6 | 27.7 | 100% | ||
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | 64.7 | 27.3 | 3.0 | 11% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 2.8 | 72.1 | 8.9 | 30% | |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 0.0 | 46.8 | 5.3 | 20% | |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | 27.1 | 11.2 | 2.0 | 5% | |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 6.1 | 29.4 | 3.6 | 12% | |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | 15.6 | 1.2 | 7% | ||
| Cyrus Allen | WR | 0.5 | 14.0 | 1.6 | 6% | |
| Brashard Smith | RB | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 2% | |
| Noah Gray | TE | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 4% | |
| Jake Briningstool | TE | 0.0 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 3% | |
| Jalen Royals | WR | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0% |
Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.
live-20260923T042310Z