Touchdown Theory

Week 2

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams

Mon Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET

The market

Line
LA -7
Total
48.5
Moneyline
NYG +280 LA -355

These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.

How the line moved

RecordedLineTotalNYGLA
Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ETLA -8.548.5+300-380
Wed Sep 9, 5:19 PM ETLA -9.548.5+370-485
Fri Sep 11, 3:11 PM ETnot posted
Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ETnot posted
Mon Sep 14, 11:25 AM ETLA -748.5+275-345
Mon Sep 14, 10:31 PM ETLA -748.5+280-355
Tue Sep 15, 12:29 AM ETLA -748.5+275-345
Tue Sep 15, 10:00 AM ETLA -748.5+280-355current

Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.

Environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Roof
fixed roof
Elevation
130 ft
Surface
matrixturf

No forecast has been recorded for this game.

Translucent fixed ETFE roof (some panels open for ventilation but roof itself does NOT retract — classified fixed_dome and is_retractable FALSE). Field vulnerable to lightning delays per WP. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Inglewood city elevation (130 ft).

The projection

Not published yet. When it is, this section carries the projected score, spread, total and win probability for this game, the fair odds the probability translates to, and the projected play counts and per-team box lines behind them.

How the number is built

Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.

Where the player numbers come from

The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.

Los Angeles Ramsprojected 37.6 pass plays, 25.2 run plays
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts34.834.8
Pass yards267.7267.7
Receiving yards267.7267.7
Pass touchdowns2.412.41
Receiving touchdowns2.412.41
Carries25.225.2
Rush yards151.3151.3
Rush touchdowns1.291.29
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Matthew StaffordQB267.71.4100%
Puka NacuaWR8.1105.59.839%
Kyren WilliamsRB79.217.42.76%
Blake CorumRB37.35.41.32%
Davante AdamsWR0.340.25.315%
Colby ParkinsonTE0.039.84.615%
Tyler HigbeeTE0.024.12.59%
Jordan WatersRB14.54.60.82%
Xavier SmithWR10.90.84%
Ronnie RiversRB9.90.3
Terrance FergusonTE9.71.14%
Jordan WhittingtonWR0.56.90.83%
Konata MumpfieldWR3.20.71%
New York Giantsprojected 37.7 pass plays, 24.1 run plays
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts33.033.0
Pass yards208.0208.0
Receiving yards208.0208.0
Pass touchdowns1.171.17
Receiving touchdowns1.171.17
Carries25.625.6
Rush yards106.5106.5
Rush touchdowns0.820.82
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Jaxson DartQB208.023.2100%
Cam SkatteboRB43.719.03.19%
Malik NabersWR0.255.67.627%
Najee HarrisRB18.210.51.35%
Isaiah LikelyTE0.027.23.413%
Darius SlaytonWR0.124.23.112%
Theo JohnsonTE0.020.23.010%
Malachi FieldsWR0.418.62.69%
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB12.46.61.23%
Devin SingletaryRB8.04.30.62%
Darnell MooneyWR0.010.91.95%
Odell Beckham Jr.WR0.210.01.45%
Dalen CambreWR0.00.90.10%

Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.

live-20260915T030122Z

Injury report

This is the week 1 report. This game is in week 2, and the league has not filed a report for it yet.

New York Giants6 listed
Andrew ThomasTKneeFull Participation in Practice
Bryan HudsonCKneeFull Participation in Practice
Malik NabersWRQuestionableKneeFull Participation in Practice
Patrick RicardFBToeFull Participation in Practice
Shelby HarrisDTAchillesFull Participation in Practice
Theo JohnsonTEShoulderFull Participation in Practice
Los Angeles Rams7 listed
Aaron DonaldDEOutNot injury related - resting playerDid Not Participate In Practice
Alaric JacksonTNot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice
Byron YoungLBNot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice
Grant StuardLBHamstringFull Participation in Practice
Jaylen WatsonCBToeFull Participation in Practice
Myles GarrettLBKneeFull Participation in Practice
Tyler HigbeeTENot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice