Touchdown Theory

Week 2

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Sun Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET

The market

Line
LAC -7
Total
43.5
Moneyline
LV +250 LAC -310

These are the market's numbers, recorded as the feed saw them. They are shown so the model can be compared against something, not as a recommendation.

How the line moved

RecordedLineTotalLVLAC
Mon Aug 31, 4:46 PM ETLAC -8.542.5+295-375
Wed Sep 9, 5:19 PM ETLAC -9.542.5+310-395
Sun Sep 13, 11:25 PM ETLAC -744.5+235-290
Mon Sep 14, 10:31 PM ETLAC -743.5+240-298
Tue Sep 15, 10:00 AM ETLAC -743.5+250-310current

Each row is a snapshot the feed recorded, oldest first. Superseded rows are kept, because a line that moves and moves back is only visible if both are shown.

Environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Roof
fixed roof
Elevation
130 ft
Surface
matrixturf

No forecast has been recorded for this game.

Translucent fixed ETFE roof (some panels open for ventilation but roof itself does NOT retract — classified fixed_dome and is_retractable FALSE). Field vulnerable to lightning delays per WP. Stadium WP did not list elevation; using Inglewood city elevation (130 ft).

The projection

Not published yet. When it is, this section carries the projected score, spread, total and win probability for this game, the fair odds the probability translates to, and the projected play counts and per-team box lines behind them.

How the number is built

Not published yet. When a projection exists for this game, this section shows the score before environment, the adjustment applied to it, and the result, adding up in front of you.

Where the player numbers come from

The model projects each team's line first, then divides it among players. Both are shown, with the team figure beside the sum of its parts, so the division can be checked rather than trusted. A row appears only when the parts add up to the whole.

Los Angeles Chargersprojected 37.8 pass plays, 25.7 run plays
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts33.233.2
Pass yards204.1204.1
Receiving yards204.1204.1
Pass touchdowns1.231.23
Receiving touchdowns1.231.23
Carries28.328.3
Rush yards117.0117.0
Rush touchdowns0.870.87
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Justin HerbertQB204.117.9100%
Omarion HamptonRB51.917.73.49%
Ladd McConkeyWR0.256.27.928%
Quentin JohnstonWR0.333.64.216%
Keaton MitchellRB25.08.61.74%
Charlie KolarTE0.123.92.612%
Oronde GadsdenTE19.02.19%
Kimani VidalRB12.65.20.93%
David NjokuTE0.014.52.57%
Brenen ThompsonWR0.312.51.76%
Tre' HarrisWR0.29.31.35%
Jaret PattersonRB8.50.80.40%
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR2.80.71%
Las Vegas Raidersprojected 37.5 pass plays, 21.1 run plays
Team lineProjectedSum of players
Pass attempts33.833.8
Pass yards179.9179.9
Receiving yards179.9179.9
Pass touchdowns0.700.70
Receiving touchdowns0.700.70
Carries22.322.3
Rush yards81.781.7
Rush touchdowns0.360.36
PlayerPosPassRushRecTgtShare
Kirk CousinsQB179.90.9100%
Ashton JeantyRB45.014.53.68%
Brock BowersTE0.248.37.327%
Tre TuckerWR2.441.56.423%
Mike Washington Jr.RB20.37.81.84%
Jalen NailorWR0.718.42.610%
Michael MayerTE0.018.83.410%
Roman HembyRB9.93.60.82%
Malik BensonWR0.49.61.55%
Jack BechWR6.41.04%
Dareke YoungWR4.70.33%
Ian ThomasTE4.30.62%
Dylan LaubeRB1.92.00.51%

Share is a player's portion of the team's projected passing yards, counting a quarterback by what he throws and everyone else by what he catches. Targets are shown but not totalled: a throwaway, a batted ball or a sack is a pass attempt with no target, which is about four a game per team, so targets legitimately do not sum to attempts.

live-20260915T030122Z

Injury report

This is the week 1 report. This game is in week 2, and the league has not filed a report for it yet.

Las Vegas Raiders2 listed
Ashton JeantyRBAnkleFull Participation in Practice
Brock BowersTEOutKneeDid Not Participate In Practice
Los Angeles Chargers6 listed
Brenen ThompsonWRHipFull Participation in Practice
Deane LeonardCBOutAbdomenDid Not Participate In Practice
Keaton MitchellRBHamstringFull Participation in Practice
Khalil MackDENot injury related - resting playerFull Participation in Practice
R.J. MickensSAnkleFull Participation in Practice
Tuli TuipulotuDEQuestionableHipLimited Participation in Practice